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2023年世界经济形势分析与预测 VIP

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张宇燕 孙杰 姚枝仲   社会科学文献出版社  2022-12 出版
ISBN:978-7-5228-1276-2

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在经历较为强劲复苏后,世界经济增长动力明显不足。受疫情形势延宕反复、地缘政治冲突升级、宏观政策环境趋紧、重大气候灾害频发等短期因素的冲击,2022年世界经济增速显著下降,同时伴随着严峻的通胀压力、高企的债务水平、动荡加剧的金融市场以及初级产品价格。当前,世界经济运行中的各种短期问题和长期矛盾交织叠加,一些不稳定、不确定、不安全的短期因素不断涌现,一些深层次矛盾和结构性问题也日益凸显。展望未来,抑制通胀与实现“软着陆”、美欧宏观政策转向的溢出效应、大规模国际制裁及其影响、部分国家债务可持续性、粮食与能源供求变化、全球产业链供应链的大国博弈等方面的态势和趋势值得关注。鉴于目前世界经济发展呈现的种种迹象并考虑到各种因素可能带来的影响,本报告认为,2023年世界经济复苏将面临更大压力,经济增速进一步下滑的可能性较大。
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