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金融加速器:货币政策传导机制与效应 VIP

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杨达   社会科学文献出版社  2019-07 出版
ISBN:978-7-5201-3351-7
关键词: 货币政策 研究 中国

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以资产价格泡沫和信贷过度扩张为特征的金融失衡是造成美国2008年金融危机的根源。然而,金融失衡问题不仅出现在美国的经济中,同样也出现在转轨时期的中国经济中。金融危机的发生迫使我们反思,以价格稳定和经济增长为目标的货币政策在金融失衡,甚至在金融危机中扮演了怎样的角色:一方面,货币政策在资产价格波动上存在调控缺位;另一方面,“事后救助”的货币政策会加剧金融失衡。现行货币政策的负面作用促使我们开始探索应该如何对其改进以尽可能地避免金融危机的重演。美国2008年金融危机发生的根源在于金融失衡,而引发此次金融危机的导火索是美联储上调基准利率导致的房价逆转,随后便造成经济总量的剧烈波动。诚然,金融失衡的不断积聚最终将通过金融危机这种破坏性的方式释放出来,以重新回归均值。但是,货币政策调控造成的房价逆转何以造成经济总量如此剧烈的反应。Bernanke和Gertler将这一现象称为货币政策传导的金融加速器效应,并通过货币政策传导的资产负债表机制揭示了金融加速器效应的形成机制。然而,在不同的经济制度下,货币进入经济体系的形式、渠道,以及对经济的影响程度都可能大不相同。因而,建立在成熟市场经济环境中的货币政策传导机制理论未必适用于转轨时期的中国经济,对于中国货币政策传导效应的研究应立足于转轨时期具体的经济与金融环境。首先,对转轨时期货币政策传导的外部环境进行分析,并阐释银行主导型金融结构以及要素价格扭曲和利率尚未完全市场化等转轨时期的特殊因素与货币政策传导机制之间的理论逻辑。其次,分析在不完全信贷市场条件下微观主体的理性选择行为对货币政策传导效应的影响。将抵押品限制这一贷款规则内生化于企业投资组合的局部均衡模型中,分析其对企业投资行为的影响,进而分析其对信贷资金配置的影响,并在此基础上,分析微观主体的理性选择行为与宏观经济效果的关联,从而揭示转轨时期我国货币政策传导的金融加速器效应的形成机制。同时,运用转轨时期的实际数据和计量经济模型对形成机制在我国的存在性进行实证检验,为理论分析提供经验性支持。再次,构建包含金融加速器效应的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE模型),并且,运用基于DSGE模型的政策模拟方法,对改进后的货币政策调控效果进行量化分析,为货币政策框架的改革提供科学的量化依据。最后,在理论分析与量化分析的基础上,提出完善我国转轨时期货币政策调控框架的政策建议。
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  • 摘要
  • Abstract
  • 绪论
    1. 第一节 研究背景
    2. 第二节 研究意义
    3. 第三节 研究思路
    4. 第四节 研究方法
    5. 第五节 研究内容与结构安排
    6. 第六节 本书的创新点
  • 第一章 相关理论与文献综述
    1. 第一节 货币政策传导机制理论
    2. 第二节 国内外关于金融加速器效应的研究
    3. 第三节 理论借鉴与文献评述
  • 第二章 金融结构与货币政策传导机制的理论逻辑
    1. 第一节 转轨时期中国金融结构的特点:货币政策传导的外部环境
    2. 第二节 银行主导型金融结构下货币政策利率传导机制的弱化
    3. 第三节 不完全信贷市场下货币政策信用传导机制的扭曲
    4. 第四节 本章小结
  • 第三章 中国货币政策传导的金融加速器效应:基于微观主体行为的分析
    1. 第一节 金融加速器效应的微观形成机制
    2. 第二节 金融加速器效应形成机制的实证检验
    3. 第三节 基于抵押品价值机制的金融加速器效应
    4. 第四节 金融加速器效应形成机制与信贷周期的形成
    5. 第五节 本章小结
  • 第四章 包含金融加速器效应的动态随机一般均衡模型
    1. 第一节 信贷市场不完全与货币政策传导机制的宏观计量与挑战
    2. 第二节 模型设定的基本特征
    3. 第三节 模型结构
    4. 第四节 模型估计
    5. 第五节 模型适用性分析
    6. 第六节 本章小结
  • 第五章 金融加速器效应下的货币政策选择:基于DSGE模型的政策模拟分析
    1. 第一节 将房地产价格纳入最优货币政策规则的动因
    2. 第二节 盯住房地产价格的货币政策的调控效果
    3. 第三节 货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调
    4. 第四节 货币政策与宏观审慎政策协调配合的最优政策安排
    5. 第五节 本章小结
  • 第六章 主要结论与政策建议
    1. 第一节 主要结论
    2. 第二节 政策建议
  • 后记
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