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东亚货币一体化的经济基础扩展性研究

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东亚作为一个地域毗邻的经济体,和欧洲这一地域毗邻的经济体有相似的地方。首先,本书扩展性地从地缘经济出发,得出东亚各国之间的相互引力值相对较大。其次,从经济增长、财政金融和国际贸易三大领域对东亚组建货币区的可行性进行评价,通过运用单一指标和扩展性地引入综合指标体系对东亚进行检验,得出哪些国家适宜组建货币区。再次,通过工资弹性假说和“同质”约束条件有所放松解决了劳动力要素流动性较差和发展不平衡问题。最后,分析东亚组建货币区进程中不容忽视的问题。
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ISBN:978-7-5097-4906-7总页码:272
字数: 203千字装帧:平装
内容简介
东亚作为一个地域毗邻的经济体,和欧洲这一地域毗邻的经济体有相似的地方。首先,本书扩展性地从地缘经济出发,得出东亚各国之间的相互引力值相对较大。其次,从经济增长、财政金融和国际贸易三大领域对东亚组建货币区的可行性进行评价,通过运用单一指标和扩展性地引入综合指标体系对东亚进行检验,得出哪些国家适宜组建货币区。再次,通过工资弹性假说和“同质”约束条件有所放松解决了劳动力要素流动性较差和发展不平衡问题。最后,分析东亚组建货币区进程中不容忽视的问题。

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图书摘要
20世纪60年代,Mundell创立了最优货币区理论,这一理论得到了其追随者的不断丰富和完善。1999年,欧元区的成立标志着最优货币区理论在实践中得到了检验。东亚作为一个经济体,在20世纪后半个世纪对世界经济的增长做出了巨大贡献,这种贡献至今还在不断加强。随着经济的发展,东亚各国也在尝试进行一系列经济金融领域的合作,组建了东盟自由贸易区、中国-东盟自由贸易区,签署了《清迈协议》以及发行东亚货币基金等。这些经济和金融领域的合作,有力地促进了东亚区域一体化进程。但东亚各国在组建货币区问题上却始终保持沉默,到底是东亚的经济发展本身影响了这种合作进程,还是东亚各国和地区在经济、政治、文化等领域的“异质”性阻碍了这一进程,抑或是东亚“二战”历史遗留问题、领土争端和主导国缺乏等因素对组建货币区形成了障碍?带着这些疑问,本书展开了对东亚是否适宜组建货币区的研究。本书从概念界定切入,在通过对最优货币区理论进行评述的基础上,首先,扩展性地从地缘经济出发,发现在其他影响条件不变的情况下,东亚各国之间的相互引力值相对较大。其次,扩展性地从经济增长、财政金融和国际贸易三大领域对东亚组建货币区的可行性进行评价,通过运用单一指标和扩展性地引入综合指标体系对东亚进行检验,得出哪些国家适宜组建货币区。再次,通过工资弹性假说和“同质”约束条件有所放松解决了东亚劳动力要素流动性较差和发展不平衡问题。最后,分析了东亚组建货币区进程中几个不容忽视的问题,进而从实践的角度印证最优货币区理论需要得到不断丰富和发展。



本书的主要内容如下:



第一章为导论。在阐述选题背景的基础上,对东亚近年来在金融货币领域的合作做了简单介绍。为了大概介绍本书的研究目的,本章还对本书涉及的相关核心概念,如东亚、货币一体化、最优货币区、经济基础等进行了概念界定,对一体化形式的内涵和外延进行了诠释。



第二章是货币一体化的历史、理论和本书的研究框架。本书首先对历史上的各种货币一体化形式进行梳理,在此基础上对欧元形成的基础进行阐述。其次,通过对自Mundell以来的最优货币区理论进行述评,找出最优货币区理论所阐述的条件之间的相互关系和应用上的不足之处。最后,对东亚货币一体化的研究现状和存在的不足进行分析,结合第一章对货币一体化和最优货币区等概念的界定,提出本书的分析框架。主要从三个方面解决东亚货币一体化的可行性问题:第一,扩展性地引入经济增长、财政金融和国际贸易所包含的各项单一指标,对东亚货币一体化的可行性进行检验;第二,扩展性地以综合评价指标来检验东亚货币一体化的可行性;第三,解决东亚劳动力要素流动性较差和发展不平衡所引来的对货币一体化的质疑。



第三、四、五章分别从经济、财政和金融、贸易领域扩展性地探讨东亚组建货币区的可行性。第三章首先讨论地缘经济,发现东亚各国由于彼此相互引力较大,有利于东亚货币一体化进程。然后,对东亚的经济增长趋同性进行分析,发现发展中国家由于经济增长较快,会实现Solow式的“catch up”。第四章以财政金融指标为讨论对象,探讨东亚各国在利率、通货膨胀率、汇率、股指波动以及赤字率和债务负担率等指标上的趋同性,并结合实际情况,探讨针对东亚各国组建货币区的趋同条件。结果表明,东亚在多数指标上的满足情况不亚于欧元区成立之初欧盟各国的趋同情况。第五章讨论东亚各国和地区的贸易情况,首先讨论外贸依存度对组建货币区的重要性及东亚各国的区域内贸易情况,然后从产业内贸易分析东亚国家之间的经济周期是否趋同的问题。通过这三章对东亚各国指标的逐一分析发现,大多数国家均能满足组建货币区的要求。



第六章是综合评价。在前三章分析的基础上,本章扩展性地构建了一套指标体系和评价方法,对东亚各国组建货币区的可行性进行综合评价。通过东亚各国的最终得分来评价哪些国家适宜组建货币区,哪些国家需要附加一些约束条件才能加入货币区,哪些国家暂时不适宜加入货币区。



第七章是东亚要素流动性与发展不平衡性分析。虽然东亚通过了指标检验,但不少学者可能对东亚组建货币区仍有疑虑,原因是东亚的劳动力要素流动性较差,经济发展极不平衡。为此,本章扩展性地引入工资弹性假设和一体化同质约束条件,解决劳动力要素流动性较差和发展不平衡带来的影响。



第八章讨论东亚货币一体化进程中几个不容忽视的问题。既然通过单一指标检验和综合指标评价都得出东亚大多数国家适宜组建货币区,那为何东亚各国至今仍在组建货币区问题上踟蹰不前?原因在于东亚货币一体化进程中,仍然有几个不容忽视的问题,这些问题如果不能得到有效解决,东亚就不具备组建货币区的现实可行性。第一个是如何计算东亚各国组建货币区的成本收益问题;第二个是东亚各国如何处理好彼此之间的领土争端问题;第三个是东亚各国如何看待“二战”历史遗留问题;第四个是东亚各国组建货币区由谁来做主导国的问题。只有这些问题得到有效解决,再辅之以基本的经济基础条件,东亚才有可能真正组建货币区。



第九章是后危机时代对东亚货币一体化进程的影响分析和本书的结论。











In the sixties of the 20th century,Mundell created the theory of
Optimum Currency Areas(OCA),
which was improved by his followers. In 1999,the establishment of the Eurozone signified that the theory of OCA
had been tested in practice. In the second half of the 20th century,as an economic region,East Asia has made great contribution to the growth of the world
economy,which is still being strengthened till now. With the
development of their economies,East Asian countries have attempted to conduct a series of economic
and financial cooperation,such as the formation of the
ASEAN Free Trade Area and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,the signing of the Chiang Mai
Initiative and the establishment of East Asian Monetary Fund. These
cooperation greatly promoted regional integration in East Asia. However,East Asian countries spoke
nothing about the formation of currency area. Does the economy itself affect the process of
cooperation? Or does the heterogeneity in the field of economy,politics and culture hinder the
process of cooperation? Or do the East Asian historical issues of World War II,territorial disputes and the lack of a dominant country all form an
obstacle to the formation of a currency area? To answer these questions,this dissertation is a study of if the East Asian Economy is
suitable for forming a currency area. On the basis of the definition of the concept and
comments on the theory of OCA,firstly,the book shows that the gravity of
each country in East Asia by geo-economics. Secondly,the book shows the feasibility of forming a currency area in East
Asia from the points of view of economic growth,finance
and international trade. It uses single and integrated index to test East
Asian countries in order to assertain countries that are suitable for forming a
currency area. Thirdly, the paper solves the problem of the poor labor flow and
unbalanced development through the wage flexibility hypothesis and the
relaxation of Homogeneous constraints. Lastly the paper analyzes several problems in bulding
an East Asian currency area which can’t be ignored. The main contents are as follows.



The first chapter is introduction. On the basis
of setting forth the background to the book,this chapter introduces briefly the finacial and currency
cooperation in East Asia. In order to introduce the research purposes of
the book,the chapter defines some core concepts,such
as East Asia,monetary integration,currency area and economic foundation,etc., explains the
connotation and extension of integrations.



The second chapter sets forth the history of
monetary integration,the OCA theory and the research framework. Firstly, this
chapter presents various forms of monetary integration in history,setting forth the foundation for
the formation of the Euro. Secondly, by commenting on the theory of OCA
since Mundell,the paper finds out the relationship of the OCA theories and some
shortcomings in practice,then the paper analyzes the
research on the monetary integration of East Asia and its shortcomings. The book puts
forward the analytical framework using the definition of the concepts in the
first chapter.It includes three main aspects of the feasibility
of monetary integration in East Asia. Firstly, it tests the feasibility of monetary
integration in East Asia from the aspect of economic growth,finance and international trade. Secondly, it
tests the feasibility of monetary integration in East Asia by comprehensive
evaluation. Thirdly, it solves the suspicion brought by the poor labor flow and unbalanced
development in East Asia.



The third, fourth and fifth chapters, discuss the
feasibility of forming a currency area in East Asia from economic,finance and international trade
perspectives respectively. Firstly,the third chapter discusses the geo-economics, finds that East Asian countries are
good for the development of its monetary integration due to the huge gravation. Then by
analyzing the convergence of economic growth this chapter finds that,for East Asian countries’ rapid economic
growth,the devoloping countries in East
Asia can realize Solow-style “catch up” . The fourth chapter discusses the convergence of
rate,inflation,exchange rate,stock index fluctuation,deficit rate and the rate of debt burden in East Asian countries,
taking the finance index as an object of study in terms of realities of
situation. It discusses convergence conditions for forming a currency area in
East Asian countries. The chapter shows that satisfied situation of
indexes in East Asia is no less than convergence conditions of EU countries in
the inception of establishment of Euro Zone. The fifth chapter analyzes that the dependence on foreign trade is essential to
form a currency area, and the trade situation in East Asian countries. Then, it
analyzes intra-regional trade which shows the extent of economic
relationship among regional countries in East Asia. By analyzing indexes in East Asian countries,most of East Asian countries can
satisfy the condition for forming a currency area.



The sixth
chapter is comprehensive evaluation. Based on the analyses in the first three chapters, this chapter evaluates
comprehensively the feasibility of forming a currency area in East Asia by designing
a set of indexes and selecting a scientific evaluation method. The paper
lists which countries are suitable for forming a currency area,which countries need some
constraint conditions before joining the currency area,and
which countries are not yet appropriate to join the currency area.



The seventh chapter is the analysis of factor
fluidity and unbalanced development. Although it has passed the test of index,some scholars can suspect the
feasibility for forming a currency area in East Asia due to poor labor mobility
and unbalanced economic development. Therefore the chapter solves the problem of poor
labor mobility and unbalanced development by bringing in wage flexibility
hypothesis and homogeneous constraints of integration.



The eighth chapter discusses important problems in
the process of monetary integration in East Asia. Most East Asian countries are suitable for
forming a currency area through the test of single index and comprehensive
index,so why is the process for
forming a currency area so slow? There are important problems in the process of
monetary integration in East Asia.If these problems can’t be effectively solved,it is not possible to form a
currency area in East Asia. The first problem is how to calculate the cost of
and income from forming a currency area in East Asia. The second problem is how to deal with the
territorial disputes in East Asia. The third problem is what to do with the
historical problems left behind by World War Ⅱ. The fourth
problem is who will be the dominant country in the process of forming a
currency area in East Asia. Only when these problems are effectively solved
and the basic economic foundation established,can East Asia form a currency area.



The ninth chapter analyzes the impact of post-crisis era on
monetary integration in East Asia, and presents the conclusion of the book.

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内容资源
目录 卷册 附属资源 图片 图表 音频 视频
第一章 导论/1



  第一节 选题意义/2



  第二节 东亚货币合作的现状/12



  第三节 东亚货币一体化相关概念界定/18



  小 结/23



第二章 货币一体化的历史、理论与本书的研究框架/25



  第一节 货币一体化的历史及欧元形成的基础/26



  第二节 最优货币区理论综述/32



  第三节 最优货币区理论问题/44



  第四节 东亚货币一体化的研究现状及本书的研究框架/49



  小 结/55



第三章 东亚货币一体化的地缘特征与增长收敛分析/57



  第一节 东亚货币一体化的地缘经济分析/58



  第二节 东亚货币一体化的经济增长收敛性分析/71



  小 结/78



第四章 东亚货币一体化的财政金融因素分析/80



  第一节 通货膨胀率趋同分析/80



  第二节 利率趋同分析/84



  第三节 汇率趋同分析/87



  第四节 股指趋同分析/93



  第五节 预算趋同分析/100



  小 结/107



第五章 东亚货币一体化的贸易因素分析/110



  第一节 贸易与货币一体化分析/111



  第二节 东亚各国区域内贸易分析/116



  第三节 东亚各国产业内贸易分析/126



  小 结/131



第六章 东亚货币一体化可行性综合评价/133



  第一节 东亚货币一体化可行性综合评价指标体系构建/133



  第二节 东亚货币一体化可行性综合评价方法/142



  第三节 东亚货币一体化的可行性评价/150



  小 结/158



第七章 东亚要素流动性与发展不平衡性分析/160



  第一节 生产要素的流动性与工资弹性假说/161



  第二节 东亚经济发展的不平衡性分析/169



  第三节 一体化同质约束条件放松与东亚货币一体化/180



  小 结/186



第八章 东亚货币一体化不容忽视的几个问题/188



  第一节 关于组建货币区的成本和收益问题/188



  第二节 关于领土争端和“二战”历史遗留问题/200



  第三节 关于组建货币区的领导权问题/208



  小 结/223



第九章 后危机时代东亚合作的趋势及结论/225



  第一节 后危机时代东亚货币一体化趋势/225



  第二节 结论与展望/229



参考文献/238



致 谢/249
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