美国问题研究报告（2013）：构建中美新型大国关系

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　摘　　要







　　2012年是美国大选年。在此次选举中，现任总统奥巴马击败了共和党候选人罗姆尼，成功连任美国总统。同时，美国政治基本保持了自2010年中期选举后的格局，共和党继续控制众议院，民主党继续在参议院占多数。



　　展望奥巴马政府第二任期的内外施政，美国面临的核心挑战仍主要来自内部。首先，经济增长乏力、失业率居高不下、财政赤字高企，依然困扰着美国，民众普遍对现状不满。奥巴马胜选后，美国人对奥巴马最大的期待是希望他能在经济、社会等问题上有所作为，带领美国走出困局。其次，在此次选举中，美国的极化现象和党派斗争进一步加剧。尽管按选举人票数统计，奥巴马的得票数超过罗姆尼将近50%，但在普选票方面，奥巴马只比罗姆尼微弱领先2.5个百分点左右。再次，奥巴马胜选之后面临一系列棘手的内政问题，如“财政悬崖”“债务上限”、枪支管制、移民改革等。为此，奥巴马政府需要花费大量的时间和精力与共和党控制的众议院进行沟通、协调，以期渡过难关。而共和党方面也以此为契机，对奥巴马的施政进行各种反制和牵制。



　　在对外政策领域，连续性将大于变化。反观奥巴马第一任期的施政，从美方的角度来看，总体感觉外交好于内政，在美国总体实力相对不济、国际局势复杂多变的情况下，奥巴马通过所谓“巧实力”外交，较为有效地维系了美国的霸权。美国的战略界也普遍对此表示认可。在亚太地区，美国的再平衡战略将有可能成为未来美国战略资源配置的一个持续性特征。关于中东事务，“阿拉伯之春”的发展轨迹，巴以和平进程，美国与以色列、伊朗和叙利亚的关系，将占有突出的地位。在叙利亚和伊朗问题上到底采取什么政策将在美国战略界引发激烈的辩论，但总统和行政部门将按照既定的思路推进，奥巴马不太可能采取危及其总统遗产的行动，即不允许美国在这一地区再次卷入大规模的对抗和冲突，他将会寻求与伊朗进行谈判来将事态尽可能置于可控的范围内。关于反恐，美国会加快从阿富汗撤军的步伐，同时继续将中东地区及阿富汗、巴基斯坦视为反恐重点，也关注恐怖主义向毗邻地区如撒哈拉以南非洲地区的扩散，奥巴马政府将继续采用特种部队、无人机等低调介入的方式进行各种反恐行动。欧洲在奥巴马政府对外政策中的地位将继续呈下降趋势，同时美国与欧洲将继续保持积极合作的关系，合作的着眼点主要将放在伊朗问题、中东事务、金融问题、签订新的自由贸易协定以及环保规则等方面。美国与俄罗斯的关系不会一帆风顺。与拉丁美洲的关系，奥巴马政府将会继续释放出许多非常积极的言辞和说法，但与其他地区相比，这一地区在美国外交中仍将处于边缘地位。与此同时，委内瑞拉和古巴的领导人继承问题将会使奥巴马政府不时地将目光转向这一地区。



　　回顾奥巴马第一任期的中美关系，两国关系呈现出复杂的特征。一方面，双边关系保持总体稳定，高层互访不断，机制化程度不断提高，经贸关系和人文交流进一步密切，在应对全球金融危机等重大问题上开展了有效合作。另一方面，尤其是2010年以来，两国间的各种矛盾、摩擦呈高发、频发态势，战略互疑加重，竞争性明显上升。



　　美方普遍认为，中国的发展已不再是简单的崛起问题，而是进入了赶超美国的阶段，防范心理明显加重，加紧在中国周边投棋布子。未来四年，随着中国综合国力继续快速提升，两国实力对比快速接近，如何应对中国的崛起将继续成为奥巴马政府第二任期对华政策的重要考量并呈现以下特点：对华政策在美国对外政策中的重要性更加彰显，对华战略定位将在“对手”与“伙伴”之间不断摇摆，对华政策将与亚太政策形成更加紧密的互动，在双边领域更加关注经贸和安全议题。未来中美关系将可能继续呈现总体基本稳定，同时低烈度竞争加剧的态势。两国关系真正步入良性发展轨道，根本出路在于构建新型大国关系。











　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Abstract







　　The year 2012 was the U.S. general election season. the incumbent President Barack Obama defeated
Republican candidate Mitt Romney and got reelected successfully. Meanwhile, the divided politics with Republican majority in the House and
Democratic majority in the Senate since 2010 midterm election continued.



　　Looking into the future domestic and foreign
policy in the second term of the Obama administration, the core challenges
facing the U.S. will mainly come from the domestic issues. First of all, the economic situation including weak economic growth, high
unemployment and large budget deficit still plagues the country and
dissatisfies the people. After the Obama reelection, American people are
full expectations that the President could make great difference on the
economic, social and other issues so as to lead the U.S. out of the decline trend.



　　Secondly, polarization and partisanship of the U.S. Politics deeply worsened during this election. Although won by nearly 50% on the electoral vote, Obama only lead Romney by 2.5%
on the popular vote.



　　Thirdly, the reelected Obama faces a series of
thorny domestic issues, such as fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, gun control and immigration
reform, which will cost Obama lots of time and effort to negotiate with the
Republican House. Meantime, Republicans take this opportunity to
lock the President in stalemate.



　　In the field of foreign policy, Obama
administration trends to have more continuity than change. Looking back on the first term, with the U.S. perspective, it seemed that the foreign affairs were better than the domestic
issues. In condition of the U.S. weak overall strength and complex international affairs, Obama did maintain the
hegemony of the U.S. more effectively with the so-called “Smart Power” diplomacy ,which has been generally approved among the U.S. strategic community.



　　In the Asia Pacific region, the U.S. rebalancing strategy will likely become the persistent logic for the future U.S. strategic resource allocation.



　　In the Middle East region, the issues such as the
spread of “Arab Spring”, the Palestine-Israel
peace process, the U.S.-Israel relations and the Iran-Syria
relations, will influence prominently. Though the policy agenda on the Syria-Iran
issues is in heated dispute of the U.S. strategic community, Obama is unlikely to take
action to jeopardize his legacy, which means that the U.S. will seek to negotiate with Iran in order to keep the situation under the
control and to avoid the involvement in large-scale
confrontation and conflict.



　　On the counter-terrorism
issue, the Obama administration will accelerate the withdrawal from
Afghanistan, while continuing to take the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan
as counter-terrorism priorities and to pay highly attention
to the proliferation of terrorism to neighbor regions such as Sub-Saharan
Africa with low-key approach including special forces and UAV.



　　For the relations with Europe, the Obama
administration will continue to maintain a positive cooperation, which will
mainly focus on Iran, the Middle East, finance, FTA and environmental
protection. It should be emphasized that the U.S.-Russian
relations would not develop smoothly.



　　For the relations with Latin America, though the
Obama administration will continue to release more positive words and
statements, compare with other regions, Latin America will remain marginalized
in the U.S. diplomacy agenda. At the same time, the leadership succession of Venezuela and Cuba will make the
Obama administration turn the focus into this region.



　　The Sino-U.S. relations during the Obama’s
first term have shown complex features. On one hand, the bilateral relations have
maintained general stability and cooperated effectively through high-level
visits, increasing degree of mechanism, closer economic and cultural exchanges
during the global financial crisis. On the other hand, especially since 2010, the
bilateral relations have shown various contradictions, such as high-frequent
friction, deepening strategic mutual distrust and significantly increasing
competition.



　　Generally, U.S. believes that China’s development is no longer a common rise, but rather
in the catch-up phase of the United States. With its defensive psychology significantly increased, the U.S. trends to intensify the intervention around China. In the next four years, with the continuing rapid increase of China’s
comprehensive national strength, the gap between the two countries will fast
decrease. How to deal with China’s
rise will continue to be an important test in Obama’s
China policy-making which shows the following trends: (1) the
importance of the China policy in the U.S. foreign agenda will strengthen; (2) the strategic position of China will swing
between the “adversary” and “partner”; (3) China policy will keep close interaction with the Asia-Pacific
policy;(4) economic, trade and security issues will get more attention in this
bilateral relations.



　　The future Sino-U.S. relations will likely
continue to share overall basic stability with low-intensity
competition. The fundamental way to the healthy development of
the bilateral relations is to build a new type relations of major powers.