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中国流动人口对住房市场的影响 VIP

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费怀玉 何兴强   社会科学文献出版社  2019-09 出版
ISBN:978-7-5201-5266-2

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在中国现行制度环境下,流动人口在进行住房决策时所面临的约束条件与户籍人口有所不同。本书首先从户籍制度安排以及金融市场不完善出发,针对流动人口的两个侧面,即外来人口(流入地角度)和外出人口(流出地角度)对流动人口的住房需求行为进行考察;在此基础上,进一步分析了流动人口对中国住房市场的影响。第二章站在流入地的角度对外来人口家庭住房模式的选择受户籍制度影响的作用机制进行了理论和实证研究。依据投资性住房需求与消费性住房需求之差将住房模式分为仅租赁住房(Rent 1)、拥有自住住房同时租赁住房(Rent 2)、拥有自住住房(Own 1)以及同时拥有自住住房和非自住住房(Own 2)四种由低到高的模式。理论分析认为,外来人口与本地居民在享受基本公共服务特别是子女教育上的不均等,加大了外来人口的定居成本,抑制了其在流入地的投资性住房需求,因而其更加倾向于选择较低住房模式。基于CHFS 2011,本章利用有序Probit回归进行实证研究,发现外来人口在流入地倾向于选择较低住房模式;高城镇化程度地区、经济发展水平较高的东部地区由于落户门槛更高、定居成本更大,外来人口更倾向于选择较低住房模式。另外,家庭净资产价值越大、家庭规模越大,以及具有政治身份等因素显著推动家庭选择较高住房模式。“流动就业”的特点使流动人口容易在流入地租房居住,而在流出地投资住房,消费性住房需求与投资性住房需求在空间上产生分离。利用CHFS 2011中“拥有住房但并不自住反而租赁其他住房”(R&O)这一住房模式,第三章进一步对外来人口的住房模式选择进行多元Probit回归分析,发现将外来人口进行住房模式选择的背景放到流入地与流出地两地进行综合考察时,外来人口倾向于选择R&O这种投资性需求与消费性需求在空间上产生分离的住房模式。第四章站在流出地的角度,考察外出人口的“家庭汇款”对流出地家庭住房需求的促进作用。在“新迁移经济学”的视角下,除了增加家庭的预算,外出人口的家庭汇款具有缓解家庭流动性约束的间接效应。理论分析认为,面临流动性约束的家庭,在外源融资无法满足投资性住房需求时,汇款收入可发挥“自融资”功能:当流动性约束较强时,随着汇款收入占比的增大,家庭的住房投资逐渐增大;而当流动性约束得到足够程度的缓解时,家庭收入中汇款收入占比的增大不再促进家庭的住房投资。基于CGSS 2010,利用Tobit回归进行实证研究,发现家庭收入中汇款收入占比越大的家庭,其住房支出也越大;分别以家庭经济状况、家庭阶层等级以及是城镇还是农村居民对家庭所受流动性约束进行衡量,发现面临流动性约束程度较大的家庭,汇款收入占比对家庭住房支出的影响统计显著,而面临流动性约束程度较小的家庭,汇款收入占比对家庭住房支出的影响统计并不显著。第二至四章的研究表明,外来人口与外出人口对住房市场的影响机制并不一样。因此,第五章利用70个大中城市的流动人口数据和2005~2012年住宅商品房平均销售价格,围绕外来人口和外出人口对房价的影响进行实证研究,发现即使外来人口涌入可能引起流入地本地居民外迁,中国城市中外来人口对房价仍具有促进作用;在人口净流出地区,外出人口对房价综合表现为抑制作用;在人口净流入地区,外出人口对房价综合表现为促进作用,家庭汇款效应存在;无论是在人口净流入还是人口净流出地区,外出人口对房价增长率均具有促进作用;但外来人口对房价增长率影响方向在不同时间段并不一致,这可能与其“流动就业”的特点有关。流动人口“流动就业”的特点会加剧住房市场的租金波动。作为投资品,家庭厌恶房价风险而不愿意持有住房资产,投资住房时高风险需高预期收益补偿,表现为“金融风险效应”;但作为消费品,拥有住房之后家庭可以对冲租金风险,其宁可放弃预期收益补偿也愿持有住房,表现为“住房消费套保效应”。第六章利用70个大中城市2006~2011年住宅销售价格指数进行实证研究,发现中国住房市场存在“住房消费套保效应”,在对冲租金风险的激励较强的市场上,“住房消费套保效应”缓解甚至逆转了“高风险高收益”关系,表现为预期收益率与风险微弱负相关,风险增大一个标准差时,年度预期收益率减小约0.507%;在供不应求特别是住房供给弹性小的上升市场上,“住房消费套保效应”更加显著,预期收益率与风险呈现较强负相关,风险增大一个标准差时,年度预期收益率减小约2.35%。第七章在前述研究的基础之上提出相应建议:第一,降低外来人口在城镇的定居成本,合理规划基本公共服务资源;第二,充分挖掘外出人口家庭汇款对流出地家庭的积极作用;第三,正确认识城镇化过程中外来人口与外出人口对住房市场影响机制的不同;第四,加大保障性住房建设力度。
[展开]
  • 摘要
  • Abstract
  • 第一章 导论
    1. 一 背景介绍
    2. 二 为何要从流动人口出发研究住房市场
    3. 三 研究内容
    4. 四 分析方法
    5. 五 研究创新
  • 第二章 户籍与外来人口的住房模式选择
    1. 一 文献回顾
    2. 二 基本公共服务不均等与外来人口的住房模式选择
    3. 三 实证模型与数据
    4. 四 实证分析
    5. 五 本章小结
  • 第三章 流动就业与外来人口的住房模式选择
    1. 一 问题的提出
    2. 二 实证分析
    3. 三 本章小结
  • 第四章 外出人口与家庭住房需求
    1. 一 文献回顾
    2. 二 外出人口与流出地家庭住房需求:基于“新迁移经济学”的视角
    3. 三 模型与变量定义
    4. 四 实证分析
    5. 五 本章小结
  • 第五章 外来人口、外出人口与房价
    1. 一 流动人口与大中城市房价
    2. 二 文献回顾
    3. 三 变量构造与数据说明
    4. 四 实证分析
    5. 五 本章小结
  • 第六章 住房市场风险-收益关系研究
    1. 一 文献回顾
    2. 二 理论框架
    3. 三 数据与变量
    4. 四 实证分析
    5. 五 本章小结
  • 第七章 结语
    1. 一 有关中国流动人口以及住房市场的主要结论
    2. 二 基于主要结论的应用建议
    3. 三 进一步的研究方向
  • 附录
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