报告

美国经济:增长渐露疲态

摘要

2019年各项经济基本面指标的持续改善并没有使美联储保持乐观,关注到增长背后的一些不利迹象和潜在的不利影响,美联储于2019年8月开始了预防性降息。与此同时,税改对财政收支的影响逐渐明显,财政赤字和政府债务问题成为关注的重点,白宫与国会之间的争执也变得更加明显。公司部门运营也出现了疲态。贸易保护政策并没有改善贸易收支,相反造成了一系列的不确定性。预计2019年美国经济增长将出现比较明显的放缓,并延续到2020年。

作者

孙杰 ,中国社会科学院大学特聘教授,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融、货币经济学、公司融资和美国经济。

参考文献 查看全部 ↓
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美国经济:增长渐露疲态

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报告目录

  • 一 经济增长呈现下行趋势
    1. (一)季度增长背后的隐忧
    2. (二)对当前美国经济走势的判断
  • 二 美联储稳步降息的政策沟通
    1. (一)美联储对经济形势的判断和影响决策的因素
    2. (二)美联储的关注点和货币政策规则的变化
  • 三 财政收支面临挑战
    1. (一)2019财年的美国财政状况加速恶化
    2. (二)白宫与国会对待财政问题的争议
  • 四 公司部门形势未出现预期好转
    1. (一)公司部门的运营环境
    2. (二)公司部门的盈利状况和经营前景由升转降
  • 五 外部经济部门的形势和政策变化
    1. (一)贸易收支的变化
    2. (二)贸易争端和保护主义对美国贸易收支的影响
  • 六 结论和展望

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