报告

印度经济:疫情冲击下脆弱性加剧

摘要

印度2019~2020财年实际GDP增长率4.2%,不仅大幅低于上一个财年的6.8%,也显著低于我们在上年报告中预计的6.0%左右。除了2020年3月起新冠肺炎疫情逐渐在包括印度在内的世界各地蔓延影响了国内和外部需求的意外因素之外,自2019年第三季度就开始的固定资本形成对GDP的负贡献超出预期也是实际GDP增长率明显低于预测值的重要原因。新冠肺炎疫情暴发之前,印度经济增速已经出现比较明显的放缓势头。2020年特别是进入第二季度后,疫情大流行给印度造成严重冲击,国内消费和生产均受创严重。经济增长虽然出现大幅下跌,但通货膨胀压力相较之前有所上升,突破了印度央行4%的通胀目标并维持在相对较高水平。股市受疫情大流行冲击迅速下跌后出现反弹。疫情暴发初期印度失业率大幅上升,而后逐渐回落至疫情前水平。印度2020~2021财年的财政预算案可谓“雄心勃勃”,疫情冲击之下政府推出了经济刺激计划并保持宽松货币政策。2020年第三季度部分领域出现复苏信号,但未来仍面临较大不确定性。综合考虑各方面因素,本报告认为印度2020~2021财年实际GDP增长率在-10%左右,2021~2022财年或将恢复至5.0%左右。

作者

冯维江 ,中国社会科学院办公厅副主任、研究员。

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印度经济:疫情冲击下脆弱性加剧

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