章节

2022~2023年世界经济形势分析与展望

摘要

在宏观政策收紧、疫情形势延宕反复、地缘政治冲突升级、重大气候灾害频发等短期因素的冲击下,发达国家CPI持续大幅上涨、大国地缘政治经济博弈加剧、金融市场动荡加剧、美元指数急速攀升和大宗商品价格巨涨落等相互交织,2022年世界经济增速明显下滑。当前,世界经济运行中的各种短期问题和长期矛盾交织叠加,一些不稳定、不确定、不安全的短期因素不断涌现的同时,一些深层次矛盾和结构性问题也日益凸显。展望未来,抑制通胀与实现“软着陆”、美欧宏观政策转向的溢出效应、大规模国际制裁及其影响、区域经贸科技机制政治化、全球粮食危机等方面的态势和趋势值得关注。鉴于目前世界经济发展呈现的种种迹象并考虑到各种因素可能带来的影响,本报告认为,2023年世界经济复苏将面临更大压力,经济增速进一步降至2.5%的可能性较大。

作者

张宇燕 ,中国社会科学院学部委员、世界经济与政治研究所研究员,中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院教授,主要研究方向世界经济、国际政治经济学。
徐秀军 ,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究方向国际政治经济学。
Zhang Yuyan
Xu Xiujun

参考文献 查看全部 ↓
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2022~2023年世界经济形势分析与展望

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章节目录

  • 一 引言
  • 二 2022年世界经济形势回顾
    1. (一)经济增长:下行压力持续加大
    2. (二)就业:总体有所改善
    3. (三)物价:屡创新高
    4. (四)债务:仍处高位
    5. (五)资本市场:大幅波动
    6. (六)利率:总体步入上行通道
    7. (七)汇率:美元指数持续走高
    8. (八)国际贸易:增速下降
    9. (九)跨境投资:增长乏力
    10. (十)大宗商品:能源价格巨涨落
  • 三 当前及未来世界经济值得关注的问题
    1. (一)抑制通胀与实现“软着陆”
    2. (二)美欧宏观政策转向的溢出效应
    3. (三)大规模国际制裁及其影响
    4. (四)区域经贸科技机制政治化
    5. (五)全球粮食危机
  • 四 2023年世界经济形势展望

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