论文

中国空气污染的社会脆弱性评估:概念模型、指标体系与影响因素

摘要

识别空气污染的高社会脆弱性地区,查明空气污染社会脆弱性的影响因素,这对于降低因空气污染造成的社会不平等、提升空气污染防治的效果都至关重要。本文首先提出了面向区域的空气污染社会脆弱性概念模型,并据此建立空气污染社会脆弱性评估的指标体系;进而以省级行政单元作为分析单位,运用投影追踪聚类模型,识别了空气污染社会脆弱性的主要影响因素。其中,排名前五的影响因素分别为:“人均可支配收入”、“本科及以上人口比例”、“每千人医院床位数”、“儿童(14岁及以下人口)”和“城市绿化覆盖率”。同时,通过集成社会脆弱性指数来探索中国空气污染社会脆弱性的时空变化特征。结果表明:2000~2014年,社会脆弱性指数均值保持了逐年下降的趋势。2000~2010年,社会脆弱性指数标准差持续上升,2010年后出现下降。在整个研究周期内,全国各省的社会脆弱性经历了普遍偏高至部分好转再至好转局面扩大的变化。社会脆弱性的好转始于东北局部,再扩展至东部沿海,继而向中西部推进。在空间分布上,中部和西部省份的社会脆弱性偏高,北京和上海的社会脆弱性最低,华北和华东地区的社会脆弱性水平居中。

作者

葛怡
张海波 ,南京大学政府管理学院教授,博士生导师,副院长,江苏省中安应急管理研究院理事长,南京大学社会风险与公共危机管理研究中心(江苏省社会风险管理研究基地)执行主任,南京大学数据智能与交叉创新实验室副主任,CSSCI集刊《风险灾害危机研究》执行主编,国家社科基金重大项目“提升我国应急管理体系与能力现代化水平研究”首席专家。研究领域为应急管理(危机管理/风险管理)、公共安全、社会治理等。出版著作《中国应急管理:理论、实践、政策》《中国转型期公共危机治理》《公共安全管理:整合与重构》《中国转型期的社会风险及识别》等。
窦闻
李杨 ,男,1980年3月12日生,天津科技大学经济与管理学院信息管理系副教授。研究方向为物流供应链与管理仿真、食品安全信息化与智能管理。

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中国空气污染的社会脆弱性评估:概念模型、指标体系与影响因素

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论文目录

  • 一 研究背景
  • 二 概念模型与指标体系的构建
    1. (一)年龄指标
    2. (二)教育指标
    3. (三)个人经济状况指标
    4. (四)职业暴露指标
    5. (五)区域经济状况指标
  • 三 社会脆弱性评估与影响因素识别的方法
  • 四 结果分析
  • 五 结论与讨论

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