中国社会舆情与危机管理报告（2013）

 



处于转型期的中国，在经济社会快速发展的同时也面临着种种舆情危机。特别是随着各种新媒体技术的出现，社会舆情事件出现的频率大大增加，舆情事件解决的难度日益增大。如何更有效地进行舆情应对成为众多主体关注的焦点。



《中国社会舆情与危机管理报告（2013）》基于中国公共事件数据库的历史数据，借助大数据挖掘、统计分析技术，运用多学科的专业理论知识，对2003～2012年的5000起重大舆情事件进行了系统研究，探讨了中国媒介平台十年的变迁，舆情事件、谣言传播的特点与规律以及网络意见领袖的影响，政府应对干预方式、新闻发布方式的变迁，就舆情事件与各地区经济发展水平、互联网发展状况的关系，舆情事件对中国公共政策的影响等话题进行了讨论，并重点就2012年中国社会舆情、分类舆情等进行了深入系统的研究，简单预测了2013年社会舆情走势。



2012年影响较大的社会舆情事件数量飙升，舆情热度升高，烈度有所缓和。地方政府、民企和国家部委为三大舆情高发机构；企业财经、违法违规、言行不当类舆情多发；北京和广东舆情数量较多，全国及跨省份地区舆情事件突出；公共管理和社会组织行业、制造业、教育业舆情频繁；舆情传播时效性增强，舆情消退时间加速，新媒体曝光率持续增加；网络媒体在中国公民表达中的作用更加凸显，微博反腐和环境维权备受瞩目；“网络问政”越来越多地受到政府部门的重视；问政议题逐渐敢于聚焦“难点”“痛点”“敏感点”；问政平台建设逐渐完善，舆情应对能力进一步提高。



2013年舆情走势将呈现如下特点：国内社会舆情事件继续保持高发态势，国际舆情事件备受关注；微博继续位居舆论风暴中心，更多新兴媒体崛起引发舆论格局变动；各种媒体工具助力中国公民表达，网络对政治经济的影响加深；网络问政继续升温，各级政府舆论引导和舆情处理能力提升。



《中国社会舆情与危机管理报告（2013）》由上海交通大学舆情研究实验室和危机管理研究中心主编，已被列入教育部人文社会科学研究报告培育项目。该书适合新闻传播、公共管理、工商管理、社会学等专业师生及从业人员使用，也是关注中国社会舆情的读者之有益读物。



 



China has been experiencing a rapid
development in economy and society in its transitional period, facing various
public opinion crisis at the same time. Especially with the emergence of new
media technologies, social public opinion events occur much more frequently, with
increasing difficulty in solution. How to respond to public opinion more
effectively has become an issue of great concern to many social sectors.



The Report on Chinese Social Opinion
and Crisis Management (2013) was completed based on the chronicle data of the
Chinese public opinion events data base. With the assist of data mining and
statistical technique, the multi-disciplinary theoretical background, the
report systematically studied the 5000 major public events through 2003 to
2012, and explored the change of Chinese media platform over the past ten
years, dissemination characters and rules of the public opinion events and
rumours, influence of the internet opinion leaders, changes of the governmental
intervention strategies and news releasing channels. It covers how public
opinion events relate to economics and the internet development, the public
policy’s influence, focuses on the public opinion in the year of 2012 in China,
and generally predicts the trends of the public opinion in 2013.



In 2012,influential social public
opinion events grew by leaps and bounds, with increasing attention and
decreasing intensity. Local governments, private enterprises and state
ministries of public opinion events were the three major involved bodies; corporate
finance, violation of laws and regulations, improper deeds and speeches were
the major types of public opinion events; Beijing and Guangdong ranked high in
incidence of public opinion events; national and inter-provincial event stood
out; the involvement of public management and social organization industry, manufacturing
and education became more frequent, the timeliness of the dissemination of
public opinion more evident, the falling-off of public opinion more rapid, and
the degree of exposure higher; internet media in China became more and more
influential and significant, and played a more prominent role in the citizens’
expression of public opinion; fighting corruption by microblogging and safe-guarding
rights concerning environmental issues drew great attention;“internet governance”
carried more weight in government agencies; the public became more daring to take
a stand in discussing political issues such as “difficult points”, “weak
points” and “sensitive points”;political platform was gradually completed for
further improvement in the capacity of responding to public opinion.



The trends of public opinion in 2013
will present the following characteristics: the incidence of domestic social
public opinion will remain high and international public opinion events will
cause great concern; microblogging will continue to be the central eye of
public opinion storm,  the rise of new
media will lead to changes in the pattern of public opinion; various media
tools will help China citizens express their opinions more effectively, and the
internet will exert even more profound influence upon politics and economy; internet
governance will continue to heat up, the governments at all levels will have
their capacity enhanced for guiding and handling public opinion.



The Report on Chinese Social Opinion
and Crisis Management(2013)was edited by Public Opinion Research Laboratory and
Crisis Management Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University. It has been included
in the Humanities Development Programs by the Ministry of Education. This book
may prove useful for teachers, students and practitioners in journalism, public
administration, business administration, sociology, and many other fields. It
is also a beneficial reading material for readers who are concerned about
Chinese social public opinion.