上海合作组织发展报告（2013）

 



本报告是《上海合作组织发展报告》问世以来的第五部。这部每年一部的研究报告是由中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所主编，由中国国内主要研究上海合作组织和中亚问题科研机构研究人员积极参与，在中国出版的第一部上海合作组织研究报告，具有较高的权威性，对关心、关注上海合作组织发展的国内外广大读者具有重要参考价值。与前几本《上海合作组织发展报告》不同，本年度报告上海大学上海合作组织公共外交研究院也参与了编写，他们的加入使报告撰写队伍增添了新的力量。



本年度报告分为总论、重要会议、地区形势与热点问题、探讨与建议、上海合作组织各领域合作的新进展、成员国与观察员国现状及其与上海合作组织关系以及附录等部分。本年度报告还增加了观察员国阿富汗以及对话伙伴国土耳其、白俄罗斯、斯里兰卡基本情况介绍。报告分析了当前上海合作组织所面临的国际和地区形势以及复杂的地缘政治经济格局变化，深入解读了地区热点问题和重大事件对上海合作组织发展的影响，对上合组织发展中遇到的一些重大问题，如一体化问题、关税同盟与上合组织关系等问题进行了深入细致探讨，一些专家提出了有重要参考价值的建议。作为《上海合作发展报告》主体内容一部分，报告还梳理分析了2012年至2013年初上海合作组织在反恐、军事、经济、交通、能源、教育、文化和农业等领域合作现状及取得的积极进展，对成员国、观察员国和对话伙伴国发展现状及其与上海合作组织关系进行了系统客观的描述，对上海合作组织及各成员国未来发展趋势进行预测。



上海合作组织成立至今已经有12年了。如果说2011年是对过去十年发展路程进行总结，而2012年则是承前启后，对未来十年进行规划和战略布局的一年。2012年6月在中国北京召开了上海合作组织第12次元首峰会，会议在很多重大国际和地区问题上达成重要共识，通过了对上海合作组织未来发展具有重要指导意义的相关文件。



2012年世界政治经济形势复杂多变，中东北非持续动荡，许多地区国际恐怖势力和宗教极端势力威胁增加，新干涉主义和自由主义泛滥。世界经济受美国金融危机和欧债危机拖累发展缓慢。这些都对上海合作组织形成严重干扰。然而，上海合作组织积极应对新挑战，没有出现西方国家希望的动荡，各成员国经济也普遍稳定增长，与西方国家经济衰退和很多国家出现的社会动荡形成鲜明对比。本报告认为，上海合作组织成员国在今后一定时期内还将继续保持政局稳定和经济发展，成员国有能力应对未来来自地区内外的各种危机和挑战。



 







This report is the fifth one since the birth of
the Annual Report on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This annual
research report is compiled by the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and
Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, with participation
from researchers from major research institutes studying SCO and Central Asian
affairs. This is the first research report on SCO published in China, which
commands a high authority and has an important reference value to readers
interested in knowing the current status and development of SCO. Different from
the previous volumes of Reports, the Public Diplomacy Research Institute of
Shanghai University participated this year, which helped strengthen the Report.



The report of this year consists of six parts,
which include general report, important meetings, regional situation and focal
points, discussions and suggestions, new developments in various areas of SCO,
the current status of member states and observer states and their relations
with SCO, and appendix. Basics on observer states as well as Turkey, Belarus
and Sri Lanka are also included in the report this year. The report analyzes
the global and regional situations faced by SCO presently and the complex geo-political and
economic structural changes, conducts an in-depth interpretation of the impacts on SCO of the
focal points and major events of the region, and launches a deep and meticulous
discussion of the significant incidents encountered in the development of SCO
such as organizational integration, customs union and their relations with SCO.
Some experts have raised valuable suggestions. As a component of the main body
of the SCO development report, the current status of cooperation and the major
progress obtained in the fields of anti-terrorism, military, economy, communication,
energy, education, culture and agriculture by SCO in 2012 and early 2013 are
discussed and analyzed, the current status and development of the member
states, observer states, and partner states for dialogue and their respective
relations with SCO are systematically and objectively described, and projection
on the trend of future development of SCO and its member states is also made.



It has been twelve years since the founding of
SCO. While the year 2011 may rightly be deemed as the year that marked the end
of a period on the developing path of SCO in the past decade, the year 2012
ought to be one that sets a new course for the future by launching a strategic
plan for the next decade. SCO opened its 12th summit meeting in Beijing, China
on June 2012, during which important agreements were reached on many
significant international and regional issues, and resolutions of important
guidance to the future development of SCO were also adopted.



The world of 2012 is far from peaceful, as
characterized by continued turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa,
increased threat in many regions posed by forces of international terrorism and
religious fundamentalism, the rampant torrents of neo-interventionism and liberalism, and a global
economy in slump caused by the American financial crisis and the European debt
crisis, which have had a combined and serious effect of disturbance on SCO.
Nevertheless, SCO has performed well generally with no manifest instability as
expected by the West. The various member states also saw their respective
economies grow steadily, in stark contrast with the general economic recession
of the West and the widespread social tension among many Western countries. It
is the prediction of experts that the member states of SCO will continue to
enjoy such political stability and economic growth in certain future period of
time, and are capable of dealing with various internal and external crisis or
challenges of the region in the future.