论文目录

• 1. Situation and problems of China’s macro-economy in 2013 and 2014
  1. 1.1. The three key demands
     1. 1.1.1. The total import and export trade volume of goods is approaching the boundary, reducing space for scale expansion
     2. 1.1.2. The boundary of investment rates appears and the problems with investment structure and investment efficiency become acute
     3. 1.1.3. There is a lack of endogenous mechanisms for consumption driven economic growth
  2. 1.2. Structure distortion and market risk
  3. 1.3. Predictions and outlook for 2014
• 2. Structural changes: growth trend of next five years (2014-2019)
  1. 2.1. GDP growth decomposition: based on labor productivity and changes in demographic structure
     1. 2.1.1. Growth rate of total population and growth rate of demographic dividend
     2. 2.1.2. Change rate of labor participation rate
     3. 2.1.3. Growth rate of labor productivity
     4. 2.1.4. Scenario analysis of population change in economic growth
  2. 2.2. Decomposition of structural factors in labor productivity change: industrial allocation effect
  3. 2.3. Estimation of potential growth rate: based on C-D production function and nonlinear dynamics of variables
     1. 2.3.1. Supply of labor force
     2. 2.3.2. Capital input
     3. 2.3.3. Long-term situation of factors’ elastic change
     4. 2.3.4. Total factor productivity
• 3. Analysis of efficiency imbalance
  1. 3.1. Influences of labor force reallocation due to efficiency imbalance
  2. 3.2. Slowdown and the imbalance of labor productivity
  3. 3.3. The change of TFP and its non-equilibrium: analysis based on city data
     1. 3.3.1. Average state of TFP growth of 264 cities across the nation
     2. 3.3.2. Regional TFP contrast
     3. 3.3.3. Correlation between GDP and TFP
• 4. The issue of efficiency compensation: efficient supply and transformation of economic growth mode
  1. 4.1. The raising of questions
  2. 4.2. The sequence of efficiency compensation
  3. 4.3. Investment efficiency compensation, consumption efficiency compensation and efficient supply
     1. 4.3.1. The first time efficiency compensation: analysis of investment efficiency compensation
     2. 4.3.2. The second time efficiency compensation: analysis of consumption efficiency compensation
     3. 4.3.3. Supplementary explanation of factor decomposition of growth and efficiency in Table 3 and Table 4
• 5. Policy suggestions
  1. 5.1. To transform the ideas on economic management
  2. 5.2. To attach importance to improving income distribution and fostering human capital
  3. 5.3. Re-understanding of the path of industrialization and urbanization of central and western regions
• Appendix: Formula derivation of whole-Society labor productivity growth rate