章节

向更具创造力的经济体转变:中国的进展与挑战

摘要

在充分发挥低工资和人口优势的基础上,在渐进式市场化改革和国际开放的步伐下,中国经济历经了30余年的高速增长,但现在却面对着工资快速上涨和劳动力不断减少的威胁。于是,将来的增长将越来越多地依赖于创新和生产率的提升。我们使用企业层面的专利申请、专利授权和专利引用数据,评估了中国完成这种转型的可能性。我们发现,主动融入国际市场与应对劳动力成本的不断上升是中国经济越来越具有创造力的两个主导因素。结果,中国出口产品的质量在不断上升,表现为即使在控制单位出口产品价值的条件下,中国出口产品相比其他国家出口产品的市场份额都在稳步提升。不过,我们仍然发现了创新领域资源错配的证据:国有企业获得了更大份额的创新补贴,但私有企业的创新能力更高。如果这种资源错配的问题能够得到解决,那么向创新驱动的经济体转型的步伐可能会更快。

关键词

作者

张晓波 ,北京大学光华管理学院经济学教授、博士生导师。研究兴趣为发展经济学、农业经济学、中国经济。
魏尚进
谢专

参考文献 查看全部 ↓
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  • Acemoglu,D.and Linn,J.(2004),Market size in innovation:Theory and evidence from the pharmaceutical industry,Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):1049— 1090.doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502144.
  • Allison,P.D.(2005),Fixed Effects Regression Methods for Longitudinal Data Using SAS,Cary,NC:SAS Institute.
  • Amiti,M.and Khandelwal,A.K.(2013),Import competition and quality upgrading,Review of Economics and Statistics 95(2):476—490.doi.org/10.1 162/ REST_a_00271.
  • Autor,D.H.,Levy,F.and Murnane,R.J,(2003),The skill content of recent technological change:An empirical exploration,Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4):1279-1333.doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552801.
  • Bai,C.E.and Zhang,Q.(2014),Returns to capital and their determinants in China,[in Chinese],World Economy 10:2-30.
  • Boeing,P.(2016),The allocation and effectiveness of Chinas R&D subsidies:Evidence from listed firms,Research Policy 45(9):1774—89.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.respol.2016.05.007.
  • Brandt,L.(2015),Policy perspectives from the bottom up:What do firm level data tell China needs to do? Paper presented at the Asia Economic Policy Conference on Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy,Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,San Francisco,19—20 November.
  • Brandt,L.,Tombe,T.and Zhu,X.(2013),Factor market distortions across time,space and sectors in China,Review of Economic Dynamics 16(1):39—58.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2012.10.002.
  • Cai,F.and Du,Y.(2011),Wage increases,wage convergence,and the Lewis turning point in China,China Economic Review 22(4):601—10.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2011.07.004.
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  • Feenstra,R.and Wei,S.J.(2010),China’s Growing Role in World Chicago:University of Chicago Press,doi.org/ 10.7208/chicago/ 9780226239729.001.0001.
  • Golley,J.and Meng,X.(2011),Has China run out of surplus labour? China Economic Review 22(4):555—572.doi.org/10.1016/j .chieco.2011.07.006.
  • Han,X.and Wei,S.J.(2015),Re-examining the middle income trap hypothesis (MITH):What to reject and what to revive? CEPR Discussion Paper 10989,Centre for Economic Policy Research,London.
  • Hsieh,C.T and Klenow,P.J.(2009),Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India,Quarterly Journal of Economics 124(4):1403-1448.doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2009.124.4.l403.
  • Hsieh,C.T.and Song,Z.(2015),Grasp the large,let go of the small:The transformation of the state sector in China,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 50(1):295-366.
  • Khandelwal,A.(2010),The long and short (of) quality ladders,Review of Economic Studies 77(4):1450-1476.doi.org/10.1111/j.l467-937X.2010.00602.x.
  • Knight,J.,Deng,Q.and Li,S.(2011),The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China,China Economic Review 22(4):585-600.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2011.01.006.
  • Lin,J.(1992),Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China,American Economic Review 82(1):34-51.
  • Ma,D.(2016),Can China avoid the middle income trap? Foreign Policy,12 March.
  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) (2012),China Statistical Yearbook,Beijing:China Statistics Press.
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2013),The Peoples Republic of China:Avoiding the middle-income trap —Policies for sustained and inclusive growth,September,Paris:OECD.
  • Qu,Y.Fang,C.and Zhang,X.(2013),Has the flying geese paradigm occurred in China? China Economist 8(6):18—31.
  • Romer,P.M.(1990),Endogenous technological change,Journal of Political Economy 98(5):S71-S102.doi.org/10.1086/261725.
  • Tan,Y.,Huang,Y.and Woo,W.T.(2016),Zombie firms and the crowding-out of private investment in China,Asian Economic Papers 15(3).doi.org/10.1162/ ASEP_a_00474.
  • Wang,X.,Huang,J.,Zhang,L.and Rozelle,S.(2011),The rise of migration and the fall of self-employment in rural China’s labor market,China Economic Review 22(4):573-584.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2011.07.005.
  • Wei,S.J.(2015),The recent change in China’s population policy and its implications for China and the world economy,Keynote address to the Asia Economic Policy Conference,Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,San Francisco,19—20 November.
  • Wei,S.J.and Zhang,X.(201la),The competitive saving motive:Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings in China,Journal of Political Economy 119(3):511- 564.doi.org/10.1086/660887.
  • Wei,S.J.and Zhang,X.(2011b),Sex ratios,entrepreneurship and economic growth in the People’s Republic of China,NBER Working Paper No.16800,National Bureau of Economic Research,Cambridge,Mass.
  • Wei,S.J.,Zhang,X.and Liu,Y.(2016),Home ownership as status competition:Some theory and evidence,Journal of Development Economics.First published online,21 December,doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.12.001.
  • World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) (various years),World Intellectual Property Indicators,Geneva:WIPO.
  • Wu,H.X.(2013),Measuring and interpreting total factor productivity in Chinese industry,Comparative Studies 69.Available from:magazine.caixin.com/2013/ cs_69/.
  • Xie,Z.and Zhang,X.(2015),Hie patterns of patents in China,China Economic Journal 8(2):122-142.
  • Xu,C.and Zhang,X.(2009),The evolution of Chinese entrepreneurial firms:Township—village enterprises revisited,Discussion Paper No.0854,International Food Policy Research Institute,Washington,DC.
  • Zhang,X.,Yang,J.and Wang,S.(2011),China has reached the Lewis turning point,China Economic Review 22(4):542- 554.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2011.07.002.
  • Zhu,X.(2012),Understanding China’s growth:Past,present,and future,Journal of Economic Perspectives 26(4):103- 124.doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.4.103.

向更具创造力的经济体转变:中国的进展与挑战

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