首页 > 图书详情

气候变化与我国粮食主产区粮食安全研究 经济管理类;专著 VIP

售价:¥51 ¥68
0人在读 |
0 评分
彭俊杰   社会科学文献出版社  2018-11 出版
ISBN:978-7-5201-3900-7

*温馨提示:此类商品为数字类产品,不支持退换货,不支持下载打印

图书简介 目录 参考文献 音频 视频
本书综合运用问卷调查、数据分析、模型构建、实证分析、归纳演绎等方法,对影响粮食生产的主要限制因素、农户和政府两大实施主体对气候变化的行为感知、粮食安全政策等方面进行分析探讨,并结合气象数据,综合运用SPSS、GIS等软件分析气候变化对粮食单产、土地利用、水资源利用等影响的内在机制和传导机制,建立统计模型、计量经济学模型,开展气候变化对粮食生产的影响机制的研究,最后在影响分析与效益分析的基础上,提出粮食主产区减缓气候变化策略的优先序和路径选择。
[展开]
  • 前言
  • 第一章 气候变化与粮食安全的理论基础
    1. 第一节 气候变化的基本事实
    2. 第二节 全球气候变化与粮食安全的研究现状
    3. 第三节 我国气候变化的特点
    4. 第四节 我国粮食主产区气候变化与粮食安全的形势分析
  • 第二章 我国气候变化与粮食生产的研究现状分析
    1. 第一节 气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响
    2. 第二节 气候变化与农业生产、农产品价格、农业贸易和农民收入的相互影响
  • 第三章 农业生产应对气候变化的国际比较与经验借鉴
    1. 第一节 国外农业生产应对气候变化的总体考察
    2. 第二节 我国农业生产应对气候变化的政策
    3. 第三节 国外农业生产应对气候变化对我国的政策启示
  • 第四章 我国粮食主产区气候变化对粮食产量影响的机理分析
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 模型构建
    3. 第三节 研究结果
    4. 第四节 研究结论及政策建议
  • 第五章 我国粮食主产区农民适应气候变化的行为偏好及影响因素研究
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 数据来源与样本描述性统计
    3. 第三节 模型构建
    4. 第四节 研究结论及政策建议
  • 第六章 粮食主产区粮食生产适应气候变化的路径选择
    1. 第一节 充分利用气候资源,调整作物播种期
    2. 第二节 科学应对气候暖干化与病虫害影响,选育高产优质抗逆性强的作物品种
    3. 第三节 采用小麦节水栽培模式,科学应对麦区冬春连旱
    4. 第四节 调整作物复种指数,提高耕地资源利用效率
    5. 第五节 调整作物种植面积与品种布局
    6. 第六节 科学调整主要农区生产管理方式
  • 第七章 积极应对气候变化、保障粮食安全的政策建议
    1. 第一节 调整农业结构,控制温室气体排放
    2. 第二节 加强水资源管理和设施建设
    3. 第三节 提高生态脆弱地区适应能力
    4. 第四节 提高农民适应气候变化的思想意识和行为意识
    5. 第五节 加强防灾减灾体系建设
    6. 第六节 完善不同区域应对气候变化政策
    7. 第七节 健全气候变化激励约束机制
    8. 第八节 强化农业应对气候变化的科技支撑
    9. 第九节 深化国际交流与合作
  • 第八章 气候变化对我国东北农区粮食产量的影响
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 数据来源与研究方法
    3. 第三节 实证分析
    4. 第四节 研究结果及讨论
  • 第九章 气候变化对黄淮海农区粮食生产的影响
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 数据来源与研究方法
    3. 第三节 实证分析
    4. 第四节 研究结论及政策建议
  • 第十章 气象灾害与我国粮食安全
    1. 第一节 我国主要气象灾害的类型与特点
    2. 第二节 主要气象灾害对粮食生产的影响
    3. 第三节 增强粮食生产抗灾、防灾能力的对策建议
  • 第十一章 气候变化、城镇化与粮食安全:以中原城市群地区为例
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 数据来源与研究方法
    3. 第三节 实证分析
    4. 第四节 研究结论及政策建议
  • 第十二章 气候变化对辽宁省玉米产量的影响:基于SPEI指数(标准化降水蒸散指数)分析
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 数据来源与研究方法
    3. 第三节 实证分析
    4. 第四节 研究结论及对策建议
  • 第十三章 改革开放以来河南省粮食生产变化态势及影响因素分析
    1. 第一节 文献回顾
    2. 第二节 数据来源与研究方法
    3. 第三节 实证分析
    4. 第四节 研究结论及政策建议
[1][1]Baker J.T.,Allen L.H.(1993)“Contrasting crop species responses to CO2 and temperature:rice,soybean and citrus,” Vegetatio 104-105:239-260. [2][2]Bristow K.L.,Campbell G.S.(1984)“On the relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature,” Agric For Meteorol 31:159-166. [3][3]CCSA(The Compiling Committee of State Atlas)(ed)(1989)The agricultural atlas of China. Cartographic Publishing House of China,Beijing,pp.34-93. [4][4]Chmielewski F.M.,Muller A.,Bruns E.(2004)“Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany,1961-2000,” Agric For Meteorol 121:69-78. [5][5]Conroy J.P.,Seneweera S.,Basra A.S.,Rogers G.,Nissen-Wooller B.(1994)“Influence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature on growth,yield and grain quality of cereal crops,” Aust J.Plant Physiol 21:741-758. [6][6]Dhakhwa G.B.,Campbell C.L.(1998)“Potential effects of differential day-night warming in global climate change on crop production,” Clim Change 40:647-667. [7][7]Frolking S.,Qiu J.,Boles S.,Xiao X.,Liu J.,Zhuang Y.,Li C.,Qin X.(2002)“Combining remote sensing and ground census data to develop new maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in China,” Global Biogeochem Cycles 16:1091. [8][8]Iglesias A.,Quiroga S.(2007)“Measuring the risk of climate variability to cereal production at five sites in Spain,” Clim Res 34:47-57. [9][9]IPCC(2001)Climate change 2001:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the 3rd Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge. [10][10]Jones G.V.,Goodrich G.B.(2008)“Influence of climate variability on wine regions in the western USA and on wine quality in the Napa Valley,” Clim Res 35:241-254. [11][11]Koti S.,Raja Reddy K.,Kakani V.G.,Zhao D.,Gao W.(2007)“Effects of carbon dioxide,temperature and ultraviolet-B radiation and their interactions on soybean(Glycine max L.)growth and development,” Environ Exp Bot 60:1-10. [12][12]Lobell D.B.(2007)“Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields,” Agric For Meteorol 145:229-238. [13][13]Lobell D.B.,Asner G.P.(2003)“Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields,” Science 299:1032. [14][14]Lobell D.B.,Field C.B.(2007)“Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming,” Environ Res Lett 2:014002. [15][15]Lobell D.B.,Burke M.B.,Tebaldi C.,Mastrandrea M.D.,Falcon W.P.,Naylor R.L.(2008)“Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030,” Science 319:607-610. [16][16]Matsui T.,Horie T.(1992)“Effect of elevated CO2 and high temperature on growth and yield of rice.Ⅱ.Sensitivity period and pollen germination rate in high temperature sterility of rice spikelets at flowering,” Jpn J.Crop Sci 61:148-149. [17][17]Metho L.A.,Hammes P.S.,Groeneveld H.T.,Beyers E.A.(1999)“Effects of photoperiod and temperature on grain yield,grain number,mean kernel mass and grain protein content of vernalized and unvernalized wheat(Triticum aestivum L.),” Biotronics 28:55-71. [18][18]Mitchell T.D.,Jones P.D.(2005)“An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids,” Int J.Climatol 25:693-712. [19][19]Muchow R.C.(1990)“Effect of high temperature on grain growth in field-grown maize,” Field Crops Res 23:145-158. [20][20]Nicholls N.(1997)“Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends,” Nature 387:484-485. [21][21]Peng S.,Huang J.,Sheehy J.E.,Laza R.C. and 5 others(2004)“Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming,” Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:9971-9975. [22][22]Qiu J.,Tang H.,Frolking S.,Boles S. and 5 others(2003)“Mapping single-,double-,and triple-crop agriculture in China at 0.5°×0.5° by combining county-scale census data with a remote sensing-derived land cover map,” Geocarto Int 18:3-13. [23][23]Rosenzweig C.,Parry M.L.(1994)“Potential impact of climate change on world food supply,” Nature 367:133-138. [24][24]Rosenzweig C.,Tubiello F.N.(1996)“Effects of changes in minimum and maximum temperature on wheat yields in the central US:a simulation study,” Agric For Meteorol 80:215-230. [25][25]Schoper J.B.,Lambert R.J.,Vasilas B.L.(1986)“Maize pollen viability and ear receptivity under water and high temperature stress,” Crop Sci 26:1029-1033. [26][26]Tao F.,Yokozawa M.(2005)“Risk analyses of rice yield to seasonal climate variability in China,” Jpn J.Agric Meteorol 60:885-887. [27][27]Tao F.,Yokozawa M.,Hayashi Y.,Lin E.(2003)“Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production,” Agric For Meteorol 118:251-261. [28][28]Tao F.,Yokozawa M.,Zhang Z.,Hayashi Y.,Grassl H.,Fu C.(2004)“Variability in climatology and agricultural production variability in China in association with East Asian monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation,” Clim Res 28:23-30. [29][29]Tao F.,Yokozawa M.,Xu Y.,Hayashi Y.,Zhang Z.(2006)“Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China,1981-2000,” Agric For Meteorol 138:82-92. [30][30]Tao F.,Hayashi Y.,Zhang Z.,Sakamoto T.,Yokozawa M.(2008)“Global warming,rice production and water use in China:developing a probabilistic assessment,” Agric For Meteorol 148:94-110. [31][31]Tubiello F.N.,Rosenzweig C.,Goldberg R.A.,Jagtap S.,Jones J.W.(2002)“Effects of climate change on US crop production:simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I. Wheat,potato,maize,and citrus,” Clim Res 20:259-270. [32][32]Wilkens P.,Singh U.(2001)“A code-level analysis for temperature effects in the CERES models. In:White J(ed)Modeling temperature response in wheat and maize,” CIMMYT,El.Batan,p.1-7. [33][33]Lobell,D.B.,Schlenker W.& Costa-Roberts,J.(2011)“Climate trends and global crop production since 1980,” Science 333,616-620. [34][34]Butler E.& Huybers P.(2013)“Adaptation of US maize to temperature variations. Nat,” Climate Change 3,68-72. [35][35]Wheeler T.& Von Braun,J.(2013)“Climate change impacts on global food security,” Science 341,508-513. [36][36]Asseng S. eds.(2013)“Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat,” Climate Change 3,827-832. [37][37]Urban D.,Roberts M.J.,Schlenker W.& Lobell D.B.(2012)“Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields,” Climatic Change 112,525-533. [38][38]Osborne T.M.& Wheeler T.R.(2013)“Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years. Environ. Res,” Lett. 8,024001. [39][39]Chen C.,Baethgen,W.E.& Robertson A.(2013)“Contributions of individual variation in temperature,solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain,1961-2003,” Climatic Change 116,767-788. [40][40]Li Y. eds.(2013)“Rural livelihoods and climate variability in Ningxia,Northwest China,” Climatic Change 119,891-904. [41][41]Mottaleb K.A.,Mohanty S.,Hoang H.T.K.& Rejesus R.M.(2013)“The effects of natural disasters on farm household income and expenditures:A study on rice farmers in Bangladesh. Agricultural Syst,”121,43-52. [42][42]Reidsma P.,Ewert F.,Lansink A.O.& Leemans R.(2010)“Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture:The importance of farm level responses,” Eur.J.Agronomy 32,91-102. [43][43]Slingo J.M.,Challinor A.J.,Hoskins B.J.& Wheeler T.R.(2005)Introduction:food crops in a changing climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360,1983-1989. [44][44]Ray D.K.,Mueller N.D.,West P.C.& Foley J.A.(2013)Crop yield trends are insufficient to double global food production by 2050. PLoS. ONE 8:e66428. [45][45]Ray D.K.,Ramankutty N.,Mueller N.D.,West P.C.& Foley J.A.(2012)Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat.Commun.3,1293. [46][46]Olesen J.E. eds.(2011)“Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change.Eur,” J.Agronomy 34,96-112. [47][47]Tao F. eds(2013)“Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China,and late rice was just opposite,” Global Change Biol. 19,3200-3209. [48][48]Rowhani P.,Lobell D.B.,Linderman M.& Ramankutty N.(2011)“Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania. Agricultural Forest Meteorol,”151,449-460. [49][49]Zhang T.& Huang Y.(2011)“Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008,” J.Sci.Food Agric. 92,1643-1652. [50][50]Harris I.,Jones P.D.,Osborn T.J.& Lister D.H.(2014)“Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset,” Int.J.Climatol. 34,623-642(2014). [51][51]Foley J.A.el.(2011)“Solutions for a cultivated planet,” Nature 478,337-342. [52][52]Piesse J.& Thirtle C.(2009)“Three bubbles and a panic:An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events,” Food Policy 34,119-129. [53][53]Wright B.D.(2011)“The economics of grain price volatility. Appl. Econ. Perspect,” Policy 33,32-58. [54][54]Portmann F.T.,Siebert S. & Döll,P.(2010)MIRCA2000—Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000:A new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 24,GB1011. [55][55]Fang Q. eds.(2010)“Irrigation strategies to improve the water use efficiency of wheat-maize double cropping systems in North China Plain. Agric,” Water Manag. 97,1165-1174. [56][56]Zhang S.,Sadras V.,Chen X. & Zhang F.(2014)“Water use efficiency of dryland maize in the Loess Plateau of China in response to crop management,” Field Crops Res. 163,55-63. [57][57]Lobell D.B. eds.(2013)“The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nat,” Climate Change 3,497-501. [58][58]Nishimura S.,Sawamoto T.,Akiyama H.,Sudo S. & Yagi K.(2004)Methan and nitrous oxide emissions from a paddy field with Japanese conventional water management and fertilizer application. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 18,GB2017. [59][59]Peng S. eds.(2004)“Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc. Natl Acad,” Sci. USA 101,9971-9975. [60][60]Naylor R.L.,Battisti D.S.,Vimont D.J.,Falcon W.P.& Burke M.B.(2007)“Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proc. Natl Acad,” Sci. USA 104,7752-7757. [61][61]Chapagain A.K. & Hoekstra A.Y.(2011)“The blue,green and grey water footprint of rice from production and consumption perspectives,” Ecol. Econ. 70,749-758. [62][62]Lobell D.B.,Sibley A. & Ortiz-Monasterio J.I.(2012)“Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat,” Climate Change 2,186-189(2012). [63][63]Hammer G.L.,Holzworth D.P. & Stone R.(1996)“The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climate variability,” Australian J. Agric. Res. 47,717-737. [64][64]Potgieter A.B.,Hammer G.L. & Butler D.(2002)“Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO,” Australian J. Agric. Res. 53,77-89. [65][65]Asseng S.,Foster I.& Turner N.C.(2011)“The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields,” Global Change Biol. 17,997-1012. [66][66]Phillips J.G.,Cane M.A. & Rosenzweig C.(1998)“ENSO,seasonal rainfall patterns and simulated maize yield variability in Zimbabwe. Agric,” Forest Meteorol. 90,39-50. [67][67]Cane M.A.,Eshel G. & Buckland R.W.(1994)“Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature,” Nature 370,204-205. [68][68]Walker N.J. & Schulze R.E.(2008)“Climate change impacts on agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa,” Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 124,114-124. [69][69]Amissah-Arthur A. & Jagtap S.(2002)“Rosenzweig Spatio-temporal effects of El Nino events on rainfall and maize yield in Kenya,” Int. J.Climatol. 22,1849-1860. [70][70]Tingem M.,Rivington M. & Colls J.(2008)“Climate variability and maize production in Cameroon:Simulating the effects of extreme dry and wet years,” Singapore J. Tropical Geogr. 29,357-370. [71][71]Adejuwon J.O.(2005)“Food crop production in Nigeria. I.Present effects of climate variability,” Climate Res. 30,53-60. [72][72]Bayala,J. eds(2012)“Cereal yield response to conservation agriculture practices in drylands of West Africa:A quantitative synthesis,” J.Arid Environ. 78,13-25. [73][73]Coo J. & Cox C. Effects of rainfall variability on maize yields. In:Atlas of African Agriculture Research & Development(ed. Kate Sebastian)(International Food Policy Research Institute,2014)doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896298460. [74][74]Peltonen-Sainio P.el.(2010)“Coincidence of variation in yield and climate in Europe. Agric,” Ecosyst. Environ. 139,483-489. [75][75]Chloupek O.,Hrstkova P. & Schweigert P.(2004)“Yield and its stability,crop diversity,adaptability and response to climate change,weather and fertilization over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries,” Field Crops Res. 85,167-190(2004). [76][76]Maracchi G.,Sirotenko O.& Bindi M.(2005)“Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions:Europe,” Climatic Change 70,117-135. [77][77]Wriedt G.,Velde M.V.,Aloe A. & Bouraoui F.(2009)“Estimate irrigation water requirements in Europe,” J.Hydrol. 373,527-544. [78][78]Schaldach R.,Koch J.,der Beek,T.A.,Kynast E. & Flörke M.(2012)“Current and future irrigation water requirements in pan-Europe:An integrated analysis of socio-economic and climate scenarios,” Global Planetary Change 94-95,33-45. [79][79]Olesen,J.E. eds.(2011)“Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change,” Eur. J.Agronomy 34,96-112. [80][80]Porter J.R. & Semenov M.A.(2005)“Crop responses to climatic variation. Phil,” Transact. Royal Soc.B 360,2012-2035. [81][81]Vander Velde M.,Wriedt G. & Bouraoui F.(2010)“Estimating irrigation use and effects on maize during the 2003 heatwave in France,” Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 135,90-97. [82][82]Hawkins,E. eds.(2013)“Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030,” Global Change Biol. 19,937-947. [83][83]Nielsen D.C.,Vigil M.F. & Benjamin J.G.(2009)“The variable response of dryland corn yield to soil water content at planting,” Agric. Water Manag. 96,330-336. [84][84]Lobell D.B. eds.(2014)“Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the U.S. Midwest,” Science 344,516-519. [85][85]Schlenker W. & Roberts M.J.(2009)“Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proc. Natl Acad,” Sci. USA 106,15594-15598. [86][86]National Climate Data Center(NCDC)available from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/. [87][87]Brown M.E. & Funk C.C.(2008)“Food security under climate change,” Science 319,580-581. [88][88]Avnery S.,Mauzerall D.L.,Liu J. & Horowitz L.W.(2011)Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure:1. Year 2000 crop production losses and economic damage. Atmos. Environ.45,2284-2296. [89][89]Gourdji S.M.,Sibley A.M. & Lobell D.B.(2013)Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period:historical trends and future projections. Environ. Res. Lett.8,024041. [90][90]Sultan B.,Baron C.,Dingkuhn M.,Sarr B. & Janicot S.(2005)Agricultural impacts of large-scale variability of the West African monsoon. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 128,93-110. [91][91]Iizumi T. eds.(2013)Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production. Nat. Climate Change 3,904-908. [92][92]Bebber D.P.,Ramotowski M.A.T. & Gurr S.J.(2013)Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world. Nat. Climate Change 3,985-988. [93][93]Finger R.,Hediger W. & Schmid S.(2011)Irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change—a biophysical and economic appraisal for Swiss maize production. Climatic Change 105,509-528. [94][94]Ray D.K. & Foley J.A.(2013)“Increasing global crop harvest frequency:Recent trends and future directions,” Environ. Res. Lett. 8,044041. [95][95]VanWey L.K.,Spera S.,deSa R.,Mahr D. & Mustard J.F.(2013)“Socioeconomic development and agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso,” Phil. Trans. R.Soc.B 368,1619. [96][96]Sacks W.J.,Deryng D.,Foley J.A. & Ramankutty N.(2010)“Crop planting dates:an analysis of global patterns,” Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19,607-620. [97][97]Poudel S. & Kotani K.(2013)Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal:do they vary across seasons and altitudes?Climatic Change 116,327-355. [98][98]Timsina J. & Connor D.J.(2001)Productivity and management of rice-wheat cropping systems:issues and challenges. Field Crops Res.69,93-132. [99][99]Rurinda J. eds.(2013)Managing soil fertility to adapt to rainfall variability in smallholder cropping systems in Zimbabwe. Field Crops Res. 154,211-225. [100][100]Traore B.,Corbeels M.,Van Wijk M.T.,Rufino M.C. & Giller K.E.(2013)Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali. Eur.J.Agronomy 49,115-125. [101][101]Garrett R.D.,Lambin E.F.& Naylor R.L.(2013)Land institutions and supply chain configurations as determinants of soyabean planted area and yields in Brazil. Land Use Policy 31,385-396. [102][102]West P.C. eds.(2014)“Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment,” Science 345,325-328. [103][103]IPCC,2014:Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report.Contribution of Working Groups I,II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Core Writing Team,R.K.Pachauri and L.A.Meyer(eds.)].IPCC,Geneva,Switzerland,151 pp. [104][104]Mandryk Reidsma,Van Ittersum,Martin K.(2017)“Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges:An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland,the Netherlands,” Agricultural Systems(152):154-164. [105][105]Mase Amber S.,Benjamin M.,Linda Stalker. Climate change beliefs,risk perceptions,and adaptation behavior among Midwestern U.S. crop farmers. Climate Risk Management,2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.11.004 [106][106]Yohe G.,Burton I.,Rosegrant M.W.(2008)Climate Change in the Context of Asia:Pro-poor Adaptation,Risk Management and Mitigation Strategies,No.3,FAO. [107][107]Tenge D,Hella J.(2004)“Social and economic factors affecting the adoption of soil and water conservation in West Usambara Highlands,Tanzania,” Land Degradation and Development,15(2):99-114. [108][108]Nhemachena C,Hassan R.(2007)“Micro-level analysis of farmer’s adoption to climate change in south Africa,” IFPRI Discussion Paper from International Food Policy Research Institute,No.714. [109][109]Maddison D.(2007)“The perception of and adaption to climate change in Africa,” Policy Research Working Paper,4308. Washington DC:World Bank,Development Research Group. [110][110]Knowler D,Bradshaw B.(2007)“Farmers’ adoption of conservation agriculture:A review and synthesis of recent research,” Food Policy,32(1):25-48. [111][111]Chen H,Wang J,Huang J.(2014)“Policy support,social capital,and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China,” Global Environmental Change,24:193-202. [112][112]Deressa T,Hassan R,Ringer C,eds.(2009)“Determinants of farmers’ choice of adoption methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia,” Global Environmental Change,19(2):248-255. [113][113]吕亚荣、陈淑芬:《农民对气候变化的认知及适应性行为分析》,《中国农村经济》2010年第7期,第75~86页。 [114][114]朱红根、周曙东:《南方稻区农户适应气候变化行为实证分析——基于江西省36县(市)346份农户调查数据》,《自然资源学报》2011年第7期,第1119~1128页。 [115][115]王世金、李曼、谭春萍:《山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析——以玉龙雪山地区为例》,《气候变化研究进展》2013年第3期,第216~222页。 [116][116]吴婷婷:《南方稻农气候变化适应行为影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省364户稻农的调查数据》,《中国生态农业学报》2015年第12期,第1588~1596页。 [117][117]汪兴东、陈昭玖、蔡波:《农民气候变化认知及适应性措施选择——基于鄱阳湖区的调查研究》,《农林经济管理学报》2016年第3期,第316~326页。 [118][118]邓可洪、居辉、熊伟、杨修:《气候变化对中国农业的影响研究进展》,《中国农学通报》2006年第5期,第439~441页。 [119][119]彭俊杰:《气候变化对全球粮食产量的影响综述》,《世界农业》2017年第5期,第40~45页。 [120][120]谢志清、杜银、曾燕、高苹、苗茜:《长江三角洲城市集群化发展对极端高温事件空间格局的影响》,《科学通报》2017年第Z1期,第233~244页。 [121][121]董锁成、陶澍、杨旺舟、李泽红、李宇:《气候变化对我国中西部地区城市群的影响》,《干旱区资源与环境》2007年第2期,第72~76页。 [122][122]董锁成、陶澍、杨旺舟、李飞、李双成、李宇、刘鸿雁:《气候变化对中国沿海地区城市群的影响》,《气候变化研究进展》2010年第4期,第284~289页。 [123][123]彭飞、韩增林:《环渤海沿海城市气候变化特征及其对城市发展的响应》,《海洋开发与管理》2013年第11期,第30~34页。 [124][124]董妍、彭艳、李星敏、王繁强、杜川利:《陕西关中城市群热岛效应指标初探》,《生态环境学报》2011年第10期,第1551~1557页。 [125][125]谢欣露、郑艳:《城市居民气候灾害风险及适应性认知分析——基于上海社会调查问卷》,《城市与环境研究》2014年第1期,第80~91页。 [126][126]赵守栋、王京凡、何新、刘阳、王晓敏、田育红:《城市化对气候变化的影响及其反馈机制研究》,《北京师范大学学报》(自然科学版)2014年第1期,第66~72页。 [127][127]吴蓉、孙怡、杨元建、谢五三、陶寅、张浩、石涛:《城市化对安徽省极端气温事件的影响》,《气候变化研究进展》2016年第6期,第527~537页。 [128][128]张明顺、王义臣:《北京市高温热浪脆弱性评价》,《城市与环境研究》2015年第1期,第16~33页。 [129][129]郭建平:《气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展》,《应用气象学报》2015年第1期,第1~11页。 [130][130]钱凤魁、王文涛、刘燕华:《农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策》,《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年第5期,第19~24页。 [131][131]史文娇、陶福禄:《非洲农业产量对气候变化响应与适应研究进展》,《中国农业科学》2014年第16期,第3157~3166页。 [132][132]侯麟科、仇焕广、汪阳洁、孙来祥:《气候变化对我国农业生产的影响——基于多投入多产出生产函数的分析》,《农业技术经济》2015年第3期,第4~14页。 [133][133]陈兆波、董文、霍治国、张正斌、陈霞、李茂松、杨晓光、陈银基:《中国农业应对气候变化关键技术研究进展及发展方向》,《中国农业科学》2013年第15期,第3097~3104页。 [134][134]李祎君、王春乙、赵蓓、刘文军:《气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响》,《农业工程学报》2010年第S1期,第263~271页。 [135][135]汤绪、杨续超、田展、Gnter Fischer、潘婕:《气候变化对中国农业气候资源的影响》,《资源科学》2011年第10期,第1962~1968页。 [136][136]吴普特、赵西宁:《气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响》,《农业工程学报》2010年第2期,第1~6页。 [137][137]姚凤梅、秦鹏程、张佳华、林而达、BOKEN Vijendra:《基于模型模拟气候变化对农业影响评估的不确定性及处理方法》,《科学通报》2011年第8期,第547~555页。 [138][138]史培军、王静爱、谢云、王平、周武光:《最近15年来中国气候变化、农业自然灾害与粮食生产的初步研究》,《自然资源学报》1997年第3期,第2~8页。 [139][139]冯晓龙、刘明月、霍学喜、陈宗兴:《农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出的影响效应——以陕西苹果种植户为例》,《中国农村经济》2017年第3期,第31~45页。 [140][140]翟石艳、秦耀辰、宋根鑫:《气候变化背景下农业适应性研究进展》,《河南大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年第2期,第127~136页。 [141][141]阿多、赵文吉、宫兆宁、张敏、范云豹:《1981—2013华北平原气候时空变化及其对植被覆盖度的影响》,《生态学报》2017年第2期,第576~592页。 [142][142]祁新华、杨颖、金星星、刘冠秋、李达谋、潘丹琳、齐熙:《农户对气候变化的感知与生计适应——基于中部与东部村庄的调查对比》,《生态学报》2017年第1期,第286~293页。 [143][143]胡实、莫兴国、林忠辉:《冬小麦种植区域的可能变化对黄淮海地区农业水资源盈亏的影响》,《地理研究》2017年第5期,第861~871页。 [144][144]曾小艳、郭兴旭:《极端天气、粮食产量波动与农业天气风险管理》,《江苏农业科学》2017年第11期,第306~309页。 [145][145]尹朝静、李谷成、范丽霞、高雪:《气候变化、科技存量与农业生产率增长》,《中国农村经济》2016年第5期,第16~28页。 [146][146]张露、张俊飚、童庆蒙:《农业对气候变化响应研究的进展与前瞻:以水稻为例》,《中国农业大学学报》2016年第8期,第150~158页。 [147][147]联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告第一工作组报告《气候变化2013:自然物理基础》及决策者摘要。 [148][148]科技部、环境保护部、气象局关于印发《“十三五”应对气候变化科技创新专项规划》,2017年5月18日。 [149][149]彭俊杰:《产业链视角下我国粮食安全战略再认识》,《中州学刊》2017年第4期,第50~55页。 [150][150]彭俊杰:《1978—2015年河南省粮食生产变化态势及影响因素分析》,《黄河科技大学学报》2017年第3期,第90~96页。 [151][151]方精云、朱江玲、王少鹏、岳超、沈海花:《全球变暖、碳排放及不确定性》,《中国科学:地球科学》2011年第10期,第1385~1395页。 [152][152]马文森、胡瑶庆:《发展气候智能型、农业生态学导向型、营养敏感型农业保障粮食与营养安全》,《中国粮食经济》2017年第1期,第28~29页。 [153][153]黄俊辉、李放、赵光:《农村社会养老服务需求评估——基于江苏1051名农村老人的问卷调查》,《中国农村观察》2014年第4期,第29~41页。 [154][154]周蕾、谢勇、李放:《农民工城镇化的分层路径:基于意愿与能力匹配的研究》,《中国农村经济》2012年第9期,第50~60页。
[展开]

相关推荐

发表评论

同步转发到先晓茶馆

发表评论

手机可扫码阅读