摘要
本文利用计量经济方法为粤港澳大湾区11个城市的国内旅游需求和入境旅游需求建立长期增长预测模型，并对COVID-19疫情对旅游需求可能造成的影响进行情景分析。预测和评估结果显示，2020年大湾区各市的旅游需求预期将由于疫情的冲击而大幅下跌，但有望在2021年出现显著回升；入境旅游需求的降幅普遍大于国内旅游需求。对疫情影响程度和旅游需求恢复走势的评估可为大湾区旅游业应对疫情措施的出台和促进旅游产业恢复等政策的制定提供理论和实证参照。
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