摘要
本报告利用基于情景分析的德尔菲专家预测法对粤港澳大湾区未来五年（2022～2026年）的国内和入境旅游需求进行了预测。本报告首先利用ARDL-ECM模型生成基线预测，然后邀请了8位专家根据新冠肺炎疫情对旅游需求的影响程度对基线预测进行调整，生成了三种情景预测。根据基线预测，在不存在新冠肺炎疫情的情况下，粤港澳大湾区的游客需求将稳步增长，到2026年增长至5.88亿人次；然而，鉴于新冠肺炎疫情对粤港澳大湾区旅游需求的影响持续存在，根据情景预测，在疫情对旅游需求产生轻度、中度和重度影响的情况下，粤港澳大湾区的游客总数将分别在2023年、2024年和2025年恢复到疫情发生前（2019年）的水平；国内旅游需求已呈现逐渐恢复趋势，入境旅游需求的恢复速度相对缓慢，但预计在疫情稳定后快速增长。根据疫情影响程度做出的情景预测将为粤港澳大湾区旅游业在疫情防控常态化时期的行业复苏、焕新和发展提供重要的理论指导和参考依据。
作者
张瀚元 ，博士，香港理工大学酒店及旅游业管理学院研究助理教授，研究方向为旅游经济学。
刘营 ，香港理工大学酒店及旅游业管理学院研究助理，研究方向为旅游需求预测。
宋海岩 ，博士，香港理工大学酒店及旅游业管理学院副院长，首席教授，研究方向为旅游经济学及计量经济学。
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