报告

美国经济:加速冲顶

摘要

美国经济各项基本面指标的持续改善促使美联储在开始缩表的同时加息逐渐提速。货币政策的变化对金融市场和公司融资成本的影响逐渐显现,政府债务负担也越来越沉重。在这种情况下,特朗普执政后出台的一系列政策又给美国经济带来了不确定性。财政整顿和税制改革虽然有助于美国经济的长期增长,但是在短期内赤字上升。贸易保护政策虽然在短期内还没有明显影响,但是对长期经济增长的影响不容乐观,美国经济处于冲顶阶段。预计2018年的美国经济增长比较乐观,但2019年将出现回调。

作者

孙杰 ,中国社会科学院大学特聘教授,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融、货币经济学、公司融资和美国经济。

参考文献 查看全部 ↓
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美国经济:加速冲顶

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报告目录

  • 一 宏观经济增长呈现出持续的微弱下降趋势
    1. 1.季度增长提速背后的潜在隐忧
    2. 2.对当前美国经济走势的判断
  • 二 小步快跑的渐进加息节奏
    1. 1.美联储对经济形势的判断和决策
    2. 2.影响货币政策决策的诸多因素
      1. (1)货币政策规则与货币政策沟通
      2. (2)自然利率、自然失业率和菲利普斯曲线的扁平化
      3. (3)货币政策工具
  • 三 财政状况面临挑战
    1. 1.2018年的美国财政状况持续恶化
    2. 2.白宫与国会的财政展望差距
  • 四 公司部门形势依然不容乐观
    1. 1.公司部门运营状况有所改善,但利润增长放慢
    2. 2.公司部门的运营环境
  • 五 外部经济部门的形势和政策变化
    1. 1.对外经济部门
    2. 2.特朗普贸易政策及其影响
  • 六 结论和展望

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