章节

“中等收入陷阱”和沿全球价值链升级

关键词

作者

[美]杜大伟(David Dollar) David Dollar(杜大伟),布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心高级研究员。
[巴]若泽·吉勒尔梅·莱斯(José Guilherme Reis)
王直 ,对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院教授、博士生导师,海外院长,美国乔治梅森大学政策、政府和国际事务学院资深研究员。1985年1月,获中国农业科学院硕士学位;1990年6月,获俄亥俄州立大学硕士学位;1994年11月,获明尼苏达大学博士学位。1985年1月-1987年7月,任中国农业科学院农业经济研究所研究员。1994年7月-1995年8月,任世界银行世界发展报告顾问。1995年9月-1997年9月,任明尼苏达大学应用经济学系副研究员。1997年10月-1999年7月,任普渡大学全球贸易分析研究中心经济学家。1999年7月-2002年7月,任美国农业部经济研究局经济学家。2002年7月-2004年3月,任乔治梅森大学计算科学学院高级研究员。2004年5月-2005年8月,任美国商务部经济分析局经济学家。2005年8月-2011年7月,任美国国际贸易委员会研究部高级国际经济学家。2011年7月-2016年3月,任美国国际贸易委员会研究部资深国际经济学家。2016年4月,任对外经济贸易大学全球价值链研究院海外院长。

参考文献 查看全部 ↓
  • [1]Agénor,P. R.,and O. Canuto. 2015. “Middle-Income Growth Traps.” Research in Economics 69(4):641-660.
  • [2]Ahmad,N. 2013. “Estimating Trade in Value-Added:Why and How?” In Global value chains in a changing world,edited by D. Elms and P. Low,85-105. Geneva:World Trade Organization.
  • [3]Aiyar,S.,R. Duval,D. Puy,Y. Wu,and L. Zhang. 2013. “Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap.” International Monetary Fund(IMF)Working Paper WP/13/71,IMF,Washington,DC.
  • [4]Amiti,M.,and J. Konings. 2007. “Trade Liberalization,Intermediate Inputs,and Productivity:Evidence from Indonesia.” The American Economic Review 97(5):1611-1638.
  • [5]Antràs,P. 2015. Global Production:Firms,Contracts and Trade Structure. Princeton:Princeton University Press.
  • [6]Antràs,P.,and D. Chor. 2013. “Organizing the Global Value Chain.” Econometrica 81(6):2127-2204.
  • [7]Antràs,P.,and E. Rossi-Hansberg. 2009. “Organizations and Trade.” Annual Review of Economics 1(1):43-64.
  • [8]Autor,D. 2015. “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs?The History and Future of Workplace Automation.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3):3-30.
  • [9]Azariadis,C.,and A. Drazen. 1990. “Threshold Externalities in Economic Development.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(2):501-526.
  • [10]Baldwin,R. 2006. “Globalisation:The Great Unbundling(s).” Economic Council of Finland 20(3):5-47.
  • [11]Baldwin,R.,and J. Lopez-Gonzalez. 2015. “Supply-Chain Trade:A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses.” The World Economy 38(11):1682-1721.
  • [12]Bas,M. 2012. “Input-Trade Liberalization and Firm Export Decisions:Evidence from Argentina.” Journal of Development Economics 97(2):481-493.
  • [13]Beaudry,P.,D. A. Green,and B. M. Sand. 2016. “The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks.” Journal of Labor Economics 34(S1):S199-S247.
  • [14]Bernard,A. B.,and J. B. Jensen. 1999. “Exceptional Exporter Performance:Cause,Effect,or Both?” Journal of international economics 47(1):1-25.
  • [15]Blažek,J. 2015. “Towards a Typology of Repositioning Strategies of GVC/GPN Suppliers:The Case of Functional Upgrading and Downgrading.” Journal of Economic Geography 16(4):1-21.
  • [16]Boffa,M.,V. Kumritz,G. Santoni,D. Taglioni,and D. Winkler. 2016. “Overcoming the Middle-Income Trap:The Role of GVC Integration for Climbing-Up the Income Ladder.” University of Geneva.
  • [17]Bøler,E. A.,A. Moxnes,and K. H. Ulltveit-Moe. 2015. “R&D,International Sourcing,and the Joint Impact on Firm Performance.” The American Economic Review 105(12):3704-3739.
  • [18]Bulman,D.,M. Eden,and H. Nguyen. 2014. “Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth. Is There a Middle Income Trap?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7104,World Bank,Washington DC.
  • [19]Cattaneo,O.,G. Gereffi,S. Miroudot,and D. Taglioni. 2013. “Joining,Upgrading and Being Competitive in Global Value Chains:A Strategic Framework.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6406,World Bank,Washington DC.
  • [20]Chang,H. 2011. “Institutions and Economic Development:Theory,Policy and History.” Journal of Institutional Economics 7(4):473-498.
  • [21]Chui,M.,J. Manyika,and M. Miremadi. 2016. “Where Machines Could Replace Humans - and Where They Can’t(Yet).” McKinsey Quarterly(July):1-12.
  • [22]Clerides,S.,S. Lach,and J. Tybout. 1998. “Is Learning-by-Exporting Important?Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia,Mexico and Morocco.” Quarterly Journal of Economic 113(3):903-947.
  • [23]Cusolito,A. P.,R. Safadi,and D. Taglioni. 2016. Inclusive Global Value Chains:Policy Options for Small and Medium Enterprises and Low-Income Countries. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [24]Dabús,C.,F. Tohmé,and M. Á. Caraballo. 2016. “A Middle Income Trap in a Small Open Economy:Modeling the Argentinean Case.” Economic Modelling 53(C):436-444.
  • [25]Dingemans,A. 2016. “Trying to Stay Ahead of the Curve in Chile’s Economic Development:Exploring a Way out of the Middle-Income Trap through Pragmatic Export Development.” Development Policy Review:34(5):643-669.
  • [26]Eden,M.,and P. Gaggl. 2015. “On the Welfare Implications of Automation.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7487,World Bank,Washington,DC.
  • [27]Egawa,A. 2013. “Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle-Income Trap in Asia?” Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06,Breugel,Brussels.
  • [28]Eichengreen,B.,D. Park,and K. Shin. 2013. “Growth Slowdown Redux:New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap.” National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER)Working Paper No. 18673,NBER,Cambridge,MA.
  • [29]Fally,T. 2012. “Production Staging:Measurement and Facts.” Working paper,University of Colorado-Boulder,Boulder,CO.
  • [30]Felipe,J.,A. Abdon,and U. Kumar. 2012. “Tracking the Middle-income Trap:What is It,Who Is in It,and Why?” Working Paper No. 715,Levy Economics Institute of Bard College,Annandale-On-Hudson,NY.
  • [31]Fernandes,A. M.,and A. Isgut. 2005. “Learning-by-Doing,Learning-by-Exporting,and Productivity:Evidence from Colombia.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3544,World Bank,Washington,DC.
  • [32]Frederick,S. 2016a. “Benchmarking South Asia in the Global Apparel Industry.” In Stitches to Riches?Apparel Employment,Trade,and Economic Development in South Asia,edited by G. Lopez-Acevedo and R. Robertson,39-76. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [33]Frederick,S. 2016b. “Upgrading in the Apparel and Electronics Global Value Chains(GVCs):A Multi-Layered Approach:China Country Case.” Background paper,United Nations Industrial Development Organization,Vienna.
  • [34]Garrett,G. 2004. “Globalization’s Missing Middle.” Foreign Affairs 83(6):84-96.
  • [35]Gereffi,G. 2014. “Global Value Chains in a Post-Washington Consensus World.” Review of International Political Economy 21(1):9-37.
  • [36]Gereffi,G.,J. Humphrey,and T. Sturgeon. 2005. “The Governance of Global Value Chains.” Review of International Political Economy 12(1):78-104.
  • [37]Gill,I.,and H. Kharas. 2007. An East Asian Renaissance:Ideas for Economic Growth. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [38]Gill,I.,and H. Kharas. 2015. “Middle Income Traps:A Conceptual and Empirical Survey.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6594,World Bank,Washington DC.
  • [39]Glawe,L.,and H. Wagner. 2016. “The Middle-Income Trap-Definitions,Theories and Countries Concerned:A Literature Survey.” MPRA Paper 71196. University of Hagen,Germany.
  • [40]Görg,H.,and D. Greenaway. 2004. “Much Ado about Nothing?Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit from Foreign Direct Investment?” The World Bank Research Observer 19(2):171-197.
  • [41]Grossman,G. M,and E. Rossi-Hansberg. 2006. “Trading Tasks:A Simple Theory of Offshoring.” American Economic Review 98(5):1978-1977.
  • [42]Haldane,A. 2015. “How Low Can You Go?” Speech delivered at the Portadown Chamber of Commerce,Portadown,Northern Ireland,September 18.
  • [43]Hausmann,R.,L. Pritchett,and D. Rodrik. 2005. “Growth Accelerations.” Journal of Economic Growth 10(4):303-329.
  • [44]Hoekman,B.,and S. Jackson. 2013. Reinvigorating the trade policy agenda:Think supply chain!. VoxEU,January 23.
  • [45]Huang,Y. 2016. “Can China Escape the Middle-Income Trap?” China Economic Journal 9(1):17-33.
  • [46]Hummels,D.,J. Ishii,and K. M. Yi. 2001. “The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade.” Journal of international Economics 54(1):75-96.
  • [47]Humphrey,J. 2004. “Upgrading in Global Value Chains.” World Commission on the Social Dimensions of Globalization Working Paper No. 28,International Labour Office,Geneva.
  • [48]Im,F. G.,and D. Rosenblatt. 2013. “Middle-Income Traps:A Conceptualand Empirical Survey.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6594,World Bank,Washington,DC.
  • [49]IMF(International Monetary Fund). 2016. Global Financial Stability Report:Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth,Low-Rate Era. Washington,DC:IMF.
  • [50]Ito,T. 2016. “Growth Convergence and the Middle Income Trap.” Center on Japanese Economy and Business Working Papers No. 349,Columbia Business School,New York.
  • [51]Jankowska,A.,A. J. Nagengast,and J. R. Perea. 2012. “The Middle Income Trap:Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)Development Center Policy Insights No. 96,OECD,Paris.
  • [52]Johnson,R. C.,and G. Noguera. 2012. “Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added.” Journal of international Economics 86(2):224-236.
  • [53]Kharas,H.,and H. Kohli. 2011. “What is the Middle Income Trap,Why do Countries Fall into It,and How Can It Be Avoided?” Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 3(3):281-289.
  • [54]Koopman,R.,Z. Wang,and S. J. Wei. 2014. “Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports.” The American Economic Review 104(2):459-494.
  • [55]Koren,M.,and M. Csillag. 2011. “Machines and Machinists:Capital-Skill Complementarity from an International Trade Perspective.” Centre for Economic Policy Research(CEPR)Discussion Paper No. DP8317,CEPR,London.
  • [56]KPMG. 2016. Future State 2030:The global megatrends shaping governments. London:KPMG
  • [57]Kraay,A.,and C. Raddatz. 2007. “Poverty Traps,Aid,and Growth.” Journal of Development Economics 82(2):315-47.
  • [58]Kummritz,V.,D. Taglioni,and D. Winkler. 2016. “Economic Upgrading through Global Value Chain Participation:Which Policies Increase the Value Added Gains?” Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 8007,World Bank,Washington,DC.
  • [59]Leibenstein,H. 1962. Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth:Studies in the Theory of Economic Development. New York:John Wiley and Sons.
  • [60]Lileeva,A.,and D. Treffler. 2007. “Improved Access to Foreign Markets Raises Plant-Level Productivity…for Some Plants.” NBER Working Paper No. 13297,NBER,Washington,DC.
  • [61]MacGarvie,M. 2006. “Do Firms Learn from International Trade?” Review of Economics and Statistics 88(1):46-60.
  • [62]Mariscal,A.,and D. Taglioni. 2017. “GVCs as a Source of Firm Capabilities.” World Bank,Washington,DC.
  • [63]Morikawa,M. 2016. “The Effects of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics on Business and Employment:Evidence from a Survey on Japan.” Research Institute of Economy,Trade and Industry(RIETI)Research Papers No. 16E066,RIETI,Tokyo.
  • [64]Nelson,R. R. 1956. “A Theory of The Low-Level Equilibrium Trap In Underdeveloped Economies.” The American Economic Review 46(5):894-908.
  • [65]Ohno,K. 2009. “Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap:Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam.” Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Bulletin 26(1):25-43.
  • [66]Oxford Martin School. 2016. Technology at Work v2.0:The Future is Not What It Used to Be. Oxford,U.K.:Oxford Martin School.
  • [67]Ozturk,A. 2016. “Examining the Economic Growth and the Middle-Income Trap from the Perspective of the Middle Class.” International Business Review 25(3):726-738.
  • [68]Panther,S.,and S. Flechtner. 2015. “Global and Domestic Inequalities and the Political Economy of the Middle-Income Trap.” Paper prepared for the 27th Annual Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics Conference,London,July 2-4.
  • [69]Paus,E. 2014. “Latin America and the Middle Income Trap.” United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Financing for Development Series No. 250,United Nations,Santiago.
  • [70]Paus,E.,and K. Gallagher. 2008. “Missing Links:Foreign Investment and Industrial Development in Costa Rica and Mexico.” Studies in Comparative International Development 43(1):53-80.
  • [71]Pikos,A. K.,and S. L. Thomsen. 2016. “Rising Work Complexity but Decreasing Returns.” IZA - Institute of Labor Economics Discussion Paper No. 9878. Bonn:IZA.
  • [72]Porter,M. E. 1985. Competitive Advantage:Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. New York:Simon and Schuster.
  • [73]Pritchett,L.,and L. Summers. 2014. “Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean.” NBER Working Paper No. 20573,NBER,Washington,DC.
  • [74]Pugliese,E.,G. L. Chiarotti,A. Zaccaria,and L. Pietronero. 2015. “Complex Economies Have a Lateral Escape from The Poverty Trap.” PLoS ONE 12(1):e0168540.
  • [75]Rigg,J.,B. Promphaking,and A. Le Mare. 2014. “Personalizing the Middle-Income Trap:An Inter-Generational Migrant View from Rural Thailand.” World Development 59(7):184-198.
  • [76]Robertson,P. E.,and L. Ye. 2013. “On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap.” Economics Discussion Paper No. 13.12,University of Western Australia,Perth.
  • [77]Rodrik,D. 2016. “Premature Deindustrialization.” Journal of Economic Growth 21(1):1-33.
  • [78]Rossi,A. 2013. “Does Economic Upgrading Lead to Social Upgrading in Global Production Networks?Evidence from Morocco.” World Development 46(C):223-233.
  • [79]Roy,S.,M. Kessler,and A. Subramanian. 2016. “Glimpsing the End of Economic History?Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap.” Center for Global Development(CGD)Working Paper 438,CGD,Washington,DC.
  • [80]Taglioni,D.,and D. Winkler. 2016. Making Global Value Chains Work for Development. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [81]Toh,T. V. 2013. “The Middle-Income Trap:Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” Asian Development Bank Institute(ADBI)Working Paper Series No. 421,ADBI,Tokyo.
  • [82]Wacziarg,R.,and K. H. Welch. 2008. “Trade Liberalization and Growth:New Evidence.” The World Bank Economic Review 22(2):187-231.
  • [83]Wang,Z.,S. J. Wei,X. Yu,and K. Zhu. 2016. “Characterizing Global Value Chains.” Stanford Center for International Development(SCID)Working Paper 578,SCID,Stanford,CA.
  • [84]West,D. M. 2015. What Happens if Robots Take the Jobs?The Impact of Emerging Technologies on Employment and Public Policy. Washington,DC:Brookings Institution Centre for Technology Innovation.
  • [85]WEF(World Economic Forum). 2016. The Future of Jobs:Employment,Skills and the Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Global Challenge Insight Report. Geneva:World Economic Forum.
  • [86]Whittaker,H. D.,T. Sturgeon,T. Okita,and T. Zhu. Forthcoming. Compressed Development. Oxford,U.K.:Oxford University Press.
  • [87]Woo,W. T. 2012. “China Meets the Middle-Income Trap:The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-Up.” Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 10(4):313-36.
  • [88]World Bank. 2013. China 2030:Building a Modern,Harmonious,and Creative Society. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [89]World Bank. 2016a. Global Economic Prospects:Divergences and Risks. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [90]World Bank. 2016b. The Role of Global Value Chains in the Rise of Poland and the New High-Income Economies. Washington,DC:World Bank.
  • [91]World Bank. 2016c. World Development Report 2016:Digital Dividends. Washington,DC:World Bank.

“中等收入陷阱”和沿全球价值链升级

可试读20%内容 PDF阅读 阅读器阅览

试读已结束,剩余80%未读

¥18.66 查看全文 >

VIP免费

章节目录

  • 一 “中等收入陷阱”的定义及内涵
    1. (一)“中等收入陷阱”是什么,是否真的存在?如果存在,应该如何衡量?
    2. (二)已被识别出的造成“中等收入陷阱”的原因是什么,哪些国家会受到影响?
    3. (三)经济体如何才能避免陷入“中等收入陷阱”?
  • 二 全球价值链贸易对理解“中等收入陷阱”的作用
    1. (一)参与全球价值链和经济升级概况
    2. (二)融入全球价值链和“中等收入陷阱”的实证关系
    3. (三)从全球价值链视角看收入收敛:引入企业视角
    4. (四)在产业生产和工作迅速变化的背景下,参与全球价值链贸易
  • 三 结论和政策影响
  • 附录5.1 尝试量化“中等收入陷阱”

章节图片/图表

查看更多>>>