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国外颠覆性技术预测理论与实践进展

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何然
李钢 ,经济学博士,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所研究员,《中国经济学人》副主编;中国工业经济学会副理事长兼青年部主任。在《中国社会科学》《中国工业经济》《世界经济》《数量经济技术经济研究》等期刊上发表论文60余篇,其中十余篇被《新华文摘》《中国社会科学文摘》《人大复印资料》等收录转载,中文论文H指数为24,论文总被引用量2400余次;主持国家社会科学基金重大项目等多项国家级项目。

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国外颠覆性技术预测理论与实践进展

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章节目录

  • 一 引言
  • 二 模型化方法
    1. 1.常见的技术进步预测模型
      1. (1)间断平衡模型
      2. (2)Logistic增长曲线
      3. (3)摩尔定律
    2. 2.模拟方法
  • 三 统计和数据挖掘方法
    1. 1.文献计量、科学计量、专利分析
    2. 2.数据包络分析方法
  • 四 描述性方法
    1. 1.技术路线图
    2. 2.专家调查法
  • 五 不同方法间的比较研究
  • 六 总结

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