报告

全球通胀形势分析与展望:短期波动加剧与长期中枢上行

摘要

2021年,全球通胀压力上升,但国别分化明显。在疫苗接种和政策刺激的双重支撑下,发达经济体经济加速复苏,通胀水平快速抬头。其中,美国通胀进程领先于其他发达经济体,阿根廷、土耳其等部分新兴经济体通胀飙升、经济恐陷滞胀。疫情和政策带来的供需错配是促使本轮通胀快速抬升以及短期波动加剧的主要原因。主要经济体央行坚称“暂时性通胀”观点,对通胀前景保持“谨慎乐观”,但通胀高企持续时间或超预期。预计随着疫情形势好转、供应链瓶颈缓解,美欧通胀有望在2022~2023年显著回落。但全球经济重建、产业转型升级以及“碳中和”下全球能源结构调整,将加剧相关商品的供求紧张关系,带动中长期通胀中枢相较疫情前上行,其中与半导体和新能源相关的有色金属、清洁能源等商品价格仍有上行空间。

作者

崔晓敏 ,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际贸易。
肖立晟 ,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为宏观经济。
栾稀 ,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为货币政策。
Cui Xiaomin
Xiao Lisheng
Luan Xi

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全球通胀形势分析与展望:短期波动加剧与长期中枢上行

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报告目录

  • 一 全球通胀上升,国别分化明显
    1. (一)美国引领发达经济体通胀进程
    2. (二)新兴经济体通胀分化,部分国家通胀飙升
  • 二 全球通胀的影响因素
    1. (一)通胀抬升的短期因素
      1. 1.基期效应
      2. 2.疫情错位
      3. 3.政策刺激
      4. 4.劳动力市场供求紧张
      5. 5.大宗商品价格上涨
    2. (二)通胀的长期决定力量
      1. 1.抑制通胀抬升的因素
      2. 2.老龄化和全球化对通胀作用发生改变
      3. 3.提高通胀中枢的因素
  • 三 全球通胀展望及风险

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